We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive soft landing. Is inflation really coming down as fast as the consumer price index...
Soft Landing base case, impact on real estate Every realtor newsletter I have received predicts an increase in sales and a great real estate market is 2024 due to lower mortgage rates. Will this come to fruition? Will we have a “soft landing” in 2024 and which will...
Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housing prices or did something else that occurred during Covid radically alter the market? ...
The market keeps predicting a goldilocks scenario with 100% certainty where inflation falls without much if any impact on residential real estate. The “soft landing” will occur at the same time interest rates have skyrocketed and supposedly the consumer...
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation? The answer...
What do the increased conforming loan limits mean for real estate? The federal government (aka you the taxpayer) now backs mortgages up to 1.15m. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has jumped sharply over the...
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
What does the recent CPI fall mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices? A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
A federal jury on Tuesday found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high. Two major real estate companies have...
Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available...
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? Are rates going to drop quickly like in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns. At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some very important items that will cost taxpayers millions or considerably more as government...
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