It seems nobody is talking about the property tax bomb coming to almost every major city. What is causing the huge decrease in property tax revenue even though your individual property taxes have skyrocketed? Why will your property taxes continue to skyrocket? I’m...
Over the last 100 years or so counties have operated under the assumption that if property taxes (or in some cases water/sewer, etc…) are not paid then the county can “take” the property for the unpaid taxes. A recent supreme court ruling radically alters this...
The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
We all know rents have increased, but the reason seems to be alluding our elected officials. The new scapegoat for rising rents is being pinned on artificial intelligence as the root cause of high rents and one company in particular. Why is the government now...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What does...
As suspected the March consumer price index came in hotter than expected which should be no surprise to anyone buying groceries, going out to eat, or traveling, everything is considerably more expensive and there continues to be insatiable demand. What does this mean...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? What does this mean for real estate prices over...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than just before the pandemic. What categories are...
US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
No this is not a joke, I had to read the recent Fannie Mae press release multiple times to actually believe what I was reading. Who would have ever thought that someone with a high credit score above 740 would be penalized for having a high score. Under a new rule...
As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
Beginning in March of 2023, Freddie Mac, the largest buyer of mortgages is drastically changing the seasoning requirements for any loans it purchases which basically means any new conventional conforming loan will have to follow the new rules. What big changes are...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
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