The real estate market has rapidly changed. The number of owners who are underwater is small but growing, and they have recently been concentrated in pandemic boomtowns such as Austin, Texas, Cape Coral, Fla and Denver, CO. A rapid rise in prices in these...
Look at the chart above, there is a direct correlation between heavy truck sales and GDP growth which is one of the best indicators for the health of the economy. As you can see heavy truck sales plummeted, which points to a recession. On the flip...
In every article I read about real estate they highlight that inventory is causing prices to fall, or high interest rates, or not enough demand. All of these items above are only symptoms. What is the real driver moving prices today? What does this mean for...
Check out the chart above. House prices this summer have hit yet another record? On the flip side, look at the chart below of Denver and Atlanta. Why the huge difference? What is happening in today’s real estate environment? Is the data above or below...
The real estate market has drastically shifted. Look at the chart above, sellers are rapidly outpacing buyers which means only one thing; the law of economics will rule, and prices will fall. What is causing prices to fall now in many markets, and will this...
Over the last several years, I’ve given various statistics from inventory, absorption rates, closings, consumer confidence, mortgage rates, etc… to provide guidance on where the real estate market is heading. Unfortunately there is one variable that I am now...
Condominium owners across the country are facing a paralyzing problem: They can’t sell their properties because of a fast-growing and mostly secret mortgage blacklist. Don’t worry this is not some crazy conspiracy from the government. I’ve experienced this first...
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? (hint anyone who bought into...
Wow, 2024 was definitely a surprise, at the beginning of the year, there were huge predictions of a rapid decline in rates, fast forward to 2025 and now rates are actually rapidly increasing even after the federal reserve cut short term rates. Why are rates...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. ...
It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year. Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs. What...
Wow, what a year. In December the market was anticipating as many as 4 rate cuts this year. At the same time the federal reserve was doing a victory dance on pulling of a soft landing. Fast forward and inflation is still hot and there is now a question of if...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did an analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off (chart above is my portfolio). In...
States have traditionally set rental regulations including zoning, evictions, etc… but that is all set to change with the president’s new proposal. The federal government will now be assuming many of the powers that were granted to the states. The biggest change is...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? What does this mean for real estate prices over...
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