Look at this chart above, over the last 5 years long term rates have continued a steady climb higher; now compare the chart above to the one below, see a correlation. When rates surged, the treasury tried to step in and a profound event happened that radically...
Who would every imagine that British Columbia, Canada would eliminate private property rights costing property owners billions of dollars. What was the bombshell ruling? Why is it almost impossible for anyone to buy or sell in Canada? What does this mean for US...
It seems nobody is talking about the property tax bomb coming to almost every major city. What is causing the huge decrease in property tax revenue even though your individual property taxes have skyrocketed? Why will your property taxes continue to skyrocket? I’m...
It is interesting that inventory is increasing, demand is declining, and yet home prices are staying relatively stable and or increasing based on the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. How accurate is this data? What alternative metric...
Condominium owners across the country are facing a paralyzing problem: They can’t sell their properties because of a fast-growing and mostly secret mortgage blacklist. Don’t worry this is not some crazy conspiracy from the government. I’ve experienced this first...
The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
Wow, what a year. In December the market was anticipating as many as 4 rate cuts this year. At the same time the federal reserve was doing a victory dance on pulling of a soft landing. Fast forward and inflation is still hot and there is now a question of if...
According to everything I’ve read, the economy is humming along. Economic growth is good, the labor market is healthy, and a soft landing is all but inevitable. At the same time lenders are acting polar opposite of what we should expect. Why are lenders all the...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability. Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive soft landing. Is inflation really coming down as fast as the consumer price index...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation? The answer...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some very important items that will cost taxpayers millions or considerably more as government...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
The share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year, and most of the new arrivals in that category were among the country’s higher earners (greater than 100k), a new study shows. Furthermore 24% had issues paying their bills in...
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