Recently Realtor.com and Zillow have been promoting “risk scores” for properties to reflect environmental risk from fires and floods. These new scores are radically altering real estate prices. What is included in the new scores? Are you impacted? How accurate...
Check out the chart above. House prices this summer have hit yet another record? On the flip side, look at the chart below of Denver and Atlanta. Why the huge difference? What is happening in today’s real estate environment? Is the data above or below...
70% of lumber and 30% of drywall comes from Canada which could be subject to tariffs, what does this mean for the average build cost of a house? What does the chart above have to do with Tariffs? Will tariffs meaningfully impact real estate build costs and...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What does...
The economy is currently in a “transition” phase. To determine if the sun is setting on our current cycle, it is critical to watch for leading indicators of where we might be heading. One of the strongest predictors of a recession is consumer purchases of one...
You have to hand it to the Federal government, they are always working to solve problems that do not exist. Currently there is a new proposal from the federal government (via Freddie Mac) to insure second mortgages/home equity lines of credit similar to first...
In economics there is no free lunch and you can’t spend forever without paying the piper. A new recent tax proposal keeps spending while drastically increasing taxes on real estate owners. The new plan eliminates the 1031 exchange and the step up in basis upon...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did an analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off (chart above is my portfolio). In...
The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the leading drivers of real estate prices. How true is this statement? Will the new commission structure for realtors lead to a reduction...
Big changes to how real estate has been bought and sold are scheduled for July. Why is this settlement the most groundbreaking change in real estate since the internet. What is in the most recent settlement? How will home buyers and sellers be impacted by the...
It is crazy how far technologically we have come, but at the same time how fragile our infrastructure is. On of the largest cities in Atlanta (Fulton County) recently had a cyber “incident” which shut down the city and halted all real estate closings. This...
Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housing prices or did something else that occurred during Covid radically alter the market? ...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate? Does it really matter which...
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