A new push by states to tax the real estate of the wealthy is going nationwide with cities across the country looking at expensive second homes as the gold mine to solve all their social problems. What is the new “Taylor Swift Tax”? What are some of the new proposals...
Big changes in property rights from the election- what city made 100m from the election?
Although all eyes and media coverage was on the supposed “blue wave” on election day, the real story are the huge changes in property rights throughout the Country. Did Nantucket vote to continue an effective ban on nightly rentals? Did Vail pass a 17% tax on...
Foreclosures on the rise, is this a blip or trend?
With fluctuating mortgage rates and economic pressure in the housing market, foreclosure activity Has continues to ramp up throughout the year. According to real estate data provider Attom, homebuyers may face more challenges heading into 2025. Why are foreclosure...
President fires Federal Reserve Governor mortgage rates rise
What an insane 24 hours, a late night tweet on Tuesday announced the sudden firing of a Federal Reserve Governor essentially trying to eliminate the independence of the federal reserve while ensuring looser monetary policy. Ironically the opposite occurred and...
Will real estate fall to 2020 values?
The real estate market has drastically shifted. Look at the chart above, sellers are rapidly outpacing buyers which means only one thing; the law of economics will rule, and prices will fall. What is causing prices to fall now in many markets, and will this...
Why are mortgage rates rising when they should be falling?
The chart above is very surprising. When the market is predicting a slowdown or a recession, gold typically rises and treasuries also rise, typically in tandem. The exact opposite is happening now as bond prices are falling and yields are rapidly increasing in the...
My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
A hidden crisis in US Housing; are fish the root cause?
I took the pic above of a house after a small fire in CO. I’m amazed the house had made it. Unfortunately thousands of property owners in LA are not as lucky. The recent fires in LA are estimated to cost upwards of 50 billion making it one of the costliest...
New Senate bill penalizes investors buying houses
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
Biden/Harris propose national rent control, what does this mean for prices and supply
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Banks new motto: Survive until 25, what does this mean for real estate
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
What does higher for longer rates mean for real estate?
Wow, what a year. In December the market was anticipating as many as 4 rate cuts this year. At the same time the federal reserve was doing a victory dance on pulling of a soft landing. Fast forward and inflation is still hot and there is now a question of if...
US government plans to unlock 850 billion in homeowners equity
You have to hand it to the Federal government, they are always working to solve problems that do not exist. Currently there is a new proposal from the federal government (via Freddie Mac) to insure second mortgages/home equity lines of credit similar to first...
Senate calls for Fed to lower rates; will the fed oblige?
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability. Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Lock in effect thawing: more houses coming on the market
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? What does this mean for real estate prices over...
With interest rates dropping 4 reasons there will be a large increase in foreclosures?
The market keeps predicting a goldilocks scenario with 100% certainty where inflation falls without much if any impact on residential real estate. The “soft landing” will occur at the same time interest rates have skyrocketed and supposedly the consumer...
2023 and 2024 mortgage rate predictions
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
New Senate bill, predatory investing, to curb corporate investors from buying up single-family homes
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
What does Biden’s tax plan mean for real estate?
Presidential nominee Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with two major pillars that will impact real estate: 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision 2) elimination of long term capital gains. These two changes, if passed, will have huge implications for...
2 banks implode, largest since 2008, is this a trend, impact on real estate
Over 48 hours two banks failed for very different reasons. There is a saying in banking that when rates rise and easy money runs out, we will find the skeletons that have been lurking in plain sight. Are we in for a 2008 rerun? What caused the sudden...
Proposal for National rent control, what does this mean for prices and supply, why are rents increasing
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
This chart should scare you; is the mortgage market in for a 2008 wreck; average down not even close to 20%
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...


























