The consensus among major economists is that there will be a slight reset in house prices primarily due to higher interest rates. We are already seeing this with the median home price (chart above). Even with rates staying high, are the economists wrong and will we...
High tax wealth flight accelerates; should you follow the money?
IRS data show that taxpayers keep fleeing high tax states; should you follow the wealthy residents with your real estate investing? Is the sudden shift in residents to lower cost states a blip or a new trend? Take a look at the two charts below, what is the...
What do 7% rates mean for real estate prices
At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that rates would fall below 6%, fast forward and rates are now at or close to 7% with the 10 year treasury surging to a 19 year high. At the same time the real estate market is like two stuck bulls with neither buyers...
Can Aspen and Telluride predict real estate prices?
I think most real estate pros would agree that the recent run up in prices in many areas throughout the country is concerning. Are there leading indicators of what could be to come? Take a look at charts of two high end ski towns Aspen and Telluride, CO from...
Bear at treeline, what does this mean for you and the economy
As I was hiking with my family almost at treeline in Colorado, one of my dogs suddenly went on point. To our surprise there was a brown bear sauntering through the field (sorry looks like a brown sheep as we are a good distance away on a ridge). In 30 years we...
HOA bankrupted, is now the time to buy?
With rising insurance costs and litigation HOAs across the country are coming under pressure financially. This is leading to more HOAs declaring bankruptcy. Why is a recent lawsuit against an HOA so important? What does this mean for property owners? What are the...
Zillow stock plunges: impact on real estate
Zillow’s stock has plunged, losing 65% of its value over the last 5 years. To put this in perspective, the Nasdaq 100 has doubled during this same period. Why is Zillow, who was once an internet darling, now falling precipitously? What does this mean...
Will new lawsuits radically alter how real estate is bought and sold?
Last week I asked all of you “Will the Compass Lawsuit with Zillow radically alter the way real estate is bought and sold in the United States?” The real estate pros have spoken and as you can see from the chart, the vote was pretty close 55% saying there would be a...
Trump forces investors to sell properties pulls floor from house prices
President Trump recently announced a new ban on large investors buying single family homes. Ironically this bill is almost identical to what Biden/Harris had proposed a few years ago but with a new twist that will radically alter the housing markets. Large...
Has the economy lost its mind
As I was walking on a snow covered trail, I found a blaze orange sweatshirt. WTF, who loses something like this and doesn’t even notice? It made me start thinking, has the person lost their mind? Has the economy lost its mind? Look at three charts below: Gold,...
Trump bans investors pulls floor from house prices
President Trump recently announced a new ban on large investors buying single family homes. Ironically this bill is almost identical to what Biden/Harris had proposed a few years ago. Why the interest in banning investors from purchasing single family homes? ...
Canada eliminates private property impacts US
Who would every imagine that British Columbia, Canada would eliminate private property rights costing property owners billions of dollars. What was the bombshell ruling? Why is it almost impossible for anyone to buy or sell in Canada? What does this mean for US...
Why will Real estate outperform in the next cycle
First, Happy Thanksgiving. I hope everyone has a great holiday season. As you sit around the table this year, there is plenty to talk about and debate (including this blog ). Check out the screenshot above of the headlines on Bloomberg. Depending on which headline...
Phantom debt soars, what does this mean for real estate?
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. How are consumers still spending...
Can a state prevent someone from buying property and foreclose at will?
In this past election, one state passed an updated law that disallows certain non residents from buying property. What was in the law? What state passed it? What was the huge change since 2023? What does this mean for buying real estate in certain states? Can a...
Rocket mortgage acquires redfin, what does this mean for real estate?
In a surprise move, Rocket mortgage is acquiring the real estate brokerage company Redfin for 1.8 billion. Why is a mortgage company interested in a real estate broker? What does this mean for realtors, consumers, and competitors? Will this purchase...
My recession indicator flashing green: ready for bulls or bears
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
Does the stock market predict real estate prices?
For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices. Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
Will mortgage rates drop anymore in 24, how about 2025?
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
Big real estate rebound for 2025?
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
Is inflation now driving housing prices higher?
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Huge increases in inventory, what does this mean for prices?
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
Will realtors’ settlement lower home prices?
With the realtor settlement now implemented nationwide, the question now is will a reduction in realtor fees lower house prices? The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the...
Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...

























