The federal reserve lowers interest rates and signals two more reductions the remainder of the year. At the same time mortgage rates are barely moving. Why are mortgage rates having such a large disconnect with the Federal Reserve. Will rates continue...
In every article I read about real estate they highlight that inventory is causing prices to fall, or high interest rates, or not enough demand. All of these items above are only symptoms. What is the real driver moving prices today? What does this mean for...
In my last blog post, Will real estate fall to 2020 values, I launched my first survey to see what the readers of my blog thought about the direction of the real estate market, the results were astounding. There was a clear consensus of where real estate prices are...
The real estate market has drastically shifted. Look at the chart above, sellers are rapidly outpacing buyers which means only one thing; the law of economics will rule, and prices will fall. What is causing prices to fall now in many markets, and will this...
There is a ton of negative news in real estate. Interest rates are remaining high, inventory is rising substantially, prices are coming off their peaks, commercial real estate is facing a reckoning, and the list goes on. Regardless of all the negative news, where...
Over the last several years, I’ve given various statistics from inventory, absorption rates, closings, consumer confidence, mortgage rates, etc… to provide guidance on where the real estate market is heading. Unfortunately there is one variable that I am now...
"The U.S. housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon," Bank of America economists Michael Gapen and Jeseo Park wrote in the Monday note. What is causing the real estate market to be stuck? Is being stuck actually the...
With the recent passage of president Trump's tax bill, what impact does this have on real estate and mortgage rates. Look at the chart above, why did interest rates rise when the tax bill was passed? Who are the winners and losers? What does this bill mean for the...
Various trade publications continue to predict a decline in mortgage rates the second half of the year, yet at the same time Walmart, Ford, and others have announced big price hikes coming down the pipeline. What does this mean for the economy,...
It is interesting that inventory is increasing, demand is declining, and yet home prices are staying relatively stable and or increasing based on the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. How accurate is this data? What alternative metric...
Rocket Mortgage announced the acquisition of Mr. Cooper mortgage, the largest loan servicer in the US, which will now service 2.1 trillion dollars in loans and the combined company will have access to over 10 million combined clients. Will this lead to a 2/3...
2025 was set to be the big recovery in real estate with rates lowering setting us up for a great year. Instead, rates are hovering around 7%, inventory is rising, and long term treasuries are pointing to higher rates for longer. There is also a trade...
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
70% of lumber and 30% of drywall comes from Canada which could be subject to tariffs, what does this mean for the average build cost of a house? What does the chart above have to do with Tariffs? Will tariffs meaningfully impact real estate build costs and...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? (hint anyone who bought into...
Wow, look at the huge increases in credit scores over the last 15 years. This has occurred even as student debt, auto debt, and credit card debt have all surged. Has the US all the sudden become much more credit worthy or has something else changed? What does this...
Wow, 2024 was definitely a surprise, at the beginning of the year, there were huge predictions of a rapid decline in rates, fast forward to 2025 and now rates are actually rapidly increasing even after the federal reserve cut short term rates. Why are rates...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
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