The consensus among major economists is that there will be a slight reset in house prices primarily due to higher interest rates. We are already seeing this with the median home price (chart above). Even with rates staying high, are the economists wrong and will we...
I think most real estate pros would agree that the recent run up in prices in many areas throughout the country is concerning. Are there leading indicators of what could be to come? Take a look at charts of two high end ski towns Aspen and Telluride, CO from...
As I was hiking with my family almost at treeline in Colorado, one of my dogs suddenly went on point. To our surprise there was a brown bear sauntering through the field (sorry looks like a brown sheep as we are a good distance away on a ridge). In 30 years we...
With rising insurance costs and litigation HOAs across the country are coming under pressure financially. This is leading to more HOAs declaring bankruptcy. Why is a recent lawsuit against an HOA so important? What does this mean for property owners? What are the...
Who would every imagine that British Columbia, Canada would eliminate private property rights costing property owners billions of dollars. What was the bombshell ruling? Why is it almost impossible for anyone to buy or sell in Canada? What does this mean for US...
Last week in my blog, Will Real Estate Outperform in the next cycle, I asked all if real estate would do better than other assets like Stocks, bonds, etc.. The response was pretty clear that real estate is considerably better than other...
First, Happy Thanksgiving. I hope everyone has a great holiday season. As you sit around the table this year, there is plenty to talk about and debate (including this blog ). Check out the screenshot above of the headlines on Bloomberg. Depending on which headline...
In every nightly rental discussion throughout the country, there is this theory that nightly rentals are increasing rents and pricing out locals. How true is this statement? What happened in NY when nightly rental were severely restricted? What has happened in...
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. How are consumers still spending...
In this past election, one state passed an updated law that disallows certain non residents from buying property. What was in the law? What state passed it? What was the huge change since 2023? What does this mean for buying real estate in certain states? Can a...
In a surprise move, Rocket mortgage is acquiring the real estate brokerage company Redfin for 1.8 billion. Why is a mortgage company interested in a real estate broker? What does this mean for realtors, consumers, and competitors? Will this purchase...
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices. Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
Higher income consumers are showing signs of stress. Look at the chart above, from the peak in 2022 higher end consumers intent to spend has dropped almost 25%. What does the chart mean for real estate and the general economy? Why focus on higher end consumers?...
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
The economy is currently in a “transition” phase. To determine if the sun is setting on our current cycle, it is critical to watch for leading indicators of where we might be heading. One of the strongest predictors of a recession is consumer purchases of one...
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
In only a couple of months, the world has changed substantially. In December, inflation was supposedly decreasing rapidly and the odds of a soft landing were non existent. Fast forward a few months and inflation is running hot, consumers are spending like crazy,...
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estate sales? Will the lower rates be enough to turn around the slowing market? Will rates...
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
We are in a new paradigm for real estate. With talks of a recession getting louder, what does this mean for real estate. In 2008/9 real estate was radically different than today. Companies like VRBO and Airbnb were not even around. How will the next recession be...
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