I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months and Blackstone, one of the largest buyers of residential rental homes, is pausing...
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t think anyone would debate that real estate is now entering a bear market. The million dollar...
The federal reserve did an analysis of what has led to the surge in housing prices and has a conclusive answer; the driver of high prices is not that we don’t have enough houses as the media has been claiming. What is the real culprit behind soaring prices? Is there...
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repeat of 2008. Which prior cycle will the next recession likely represent? Will it...
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March's reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with...
One of the world’s bubbliest real estate housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing...
ATTOM’s just released January 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows there were a total of 23,204 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings reported in January 2022. That figure is up 29 percent from December 2021 and 139 percent from January 2021. Will we see a...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
As mortgage rates have easily breached 5% (last I checked they were at 5.25%), there is a drastic change in real estate that is just beginning to rear its head. At the same time inventory is starting to increase and loan volumes have plummeted. What is the big...
The federal housing finance agency (FHFA), the largest buyer of mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fannie/Freddie), announced huge changes to there fee structure. In particular they are targeting high cost loans with big jumps for second...
Who would have ever thought that used car prices would increase? A 10 year old car has appreciated 94% since the pandemic supply chain woes occurred. Unfortunately, what goes up will come down. When will the used car bubble pop? Why is the outcome of the auto...
The swiftness of the changes in the real estate market are astonishing, yet not unexpected. I predicted last year mortgage rates would top 5% and they already have come close. This has led to a 60% drop in refinances and a sharp reduction in sales. What do these...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses and the media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to a historic shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth...
According to Zillow, house prices will continue to skyrocket in 2022 with hot markets posting gains of 25% plus. What factors are driving these predictions? How accurate are Zillow's 2022 predictions for appreciation? How does Zillow’s estimates compare with the...
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