Interest rate news and forecasts: Fed decisions, bond market moves and inflation, and how each affects real estate prices and borrowers.
Should Weinberg lead the fed 😊? As suspected the Federal Reserve continued to hold on rates even though inflation continues well above their target. What fundamental flaw is the federal reserve making? I recently did an interview with Mortgage Professional...
Once again, forecasts for inflation have bombed with the September inflation reports exceeding most forecasts. Why does inflation continue running hotter than anticipated? What does this mean for interest rates and real estate? What happens when interest rates...
At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that rates would fall below 6%, fast forward and rates are now at or close to 7% with the 10 year treasury surging to a 19 year high. At the same time the real estate market is like two stuck bulls with neither buyers...
Last week I asked all of you: How will the recent Federal Reserve increase of rates impact real estate prices? The real estate pros have spoken, the majority think (&0%) think that real estate prices will fall, while 18% felt no impact on prices and...
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the federal funds rate. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates fell. What do all these...
Look at this chart above, over the last 5 years long term rates have continued a steady climb higher; now compare the chart above to the one below, see a correlation. When rates surged, the treasury tried to step in and a profound event happened that radically...
It seems like all the economists are surprised that inflation continues at elevated levels and suddenly the market is in a panic about higher inflation. Am I the only one in the world that buys groceries, fills up my gas tank, goes out to eat, etc… Anyone...
The May inflation report is in, rising to the highest level in 3 years. Look at the chart above, out of nowhere yields have surged to almost 20-year highs and predictions exceeding 6%. The market is suddenly catching on that we have an inflation...
Look at this chart above, out of nowhere yields have made a U-turn with long term treasury yields surge to almost 20-year highs and predictions exceeding 6%. This is exactly the opposite of what economists had predicted at the beginning of the...
Another uptick in the US’s annual inflation rate comes as little surprise as the US-Iran war rumbles on, but it’s still deepened uncertainty across the US housing market and clouded the interest rate outlook. “Based on the recent readings, I think any rate cuts are...
2026 was set to be the big recovery in real estate with rates lowering, setting us up for a great year. Instead, the Iran war kicked off driving energy prices and in turn inflation up. The rate narrative has made a U-turn with the question of when to...
If you missed it (here is a link), last week I was interviewed in Mortgage Professional America on what happens to mortgage rates and real estate as a result of the huge economic news last week with jobs slower and energy prices skyrocketing. What does the...
The supreme court throws out president Trump’s tariffs. What does this mean for real estate building costs and interest rates? Why is the chart above so important? Will this decision drastically alter the real estate market one way or another? What happens...
Last week I asked all of you what will mortgage be one year from now? The real estate pros have spoken, the majority think that rates will end up around 5.5-6%, with a close second saying 6-6.5%. What changed from last year. How accurate are these...
Last week I asked all of you what will mortgage be one year from now? The real estate pros have spoken and as you can see from the chart above, the majority (50%) think that mortgage rates will be 5.5 -6% while the second largest percentage put rates in...
What an insane 24 hours, a late night tweet on Tuesday announced the sudden firing of a Federal Reserve Governor essentially trying to eliminate the independence of the federal reserve while ensuring looser monetary policy. Ironically the opposite occurred and...
Condominium owners across the country are facing a paralyzing problem: They can’t sell their properties because of a fast-growing and mostly secret mortgage blacklist. Don’t worry this is not some crazy conspiracy from the government. I’ve experienced this first...
The chart above is very surprising. When the market is predicting a slowdown or a recession, gold typically rises and treasuries also rise, typically in tandem. The exact opposite is happening now as bond prices are falling and yields are rapidly increasing in the...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? (hint anyone who bought into...
Look at the graph above, what has caused my closing to surge in 2025 while overall real estate closing volumes have plummeted? What does this mean for real estate? Don’t get me wrong, I like to think the surge in closings is because I’m an amazing lender and a great...
Fannie Mae, one of the largest buyers of residential mortgages has some profound predictions. Will house prices continue their upward trend through 2030? How accurate are the predictions below? How can house prices continue in such a linear fashion? Will...
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
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