At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that rates would fall below 6%, fast forward and rates are now at or close to 7% with the 10 year treasury surging to a 19 year high. At the same time the real estate market is like two stuck bulls with neither buyers...
Look at this chart above, over the last 5 years long term rates have continued a steady climb higher; now compare the chart above to the one below, see a correlation. When rates surged, the treasury tried to step in and a profound event happened that radically...
It seems nobody is talking about the property tax bomb coming to almost every major city. What is causing the huge decrease in property tax revenue even though your individual property taxes have skyrocketed? Why will your property taxes continue to skyrocket? I’m...
The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability. Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some very important items that will cost taxpayers millions or considerably more as government...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property prices. Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
ATTOM’s just released January 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows there were a total of 23,204 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings reported in January 2022. That figure is up 29 percent from December 2021 and 139 percent from January 2021. Will we see a...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
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