The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate? Does it really matter which...
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
I continue to hear discussions about the huge plunge in office values while little attention has been given to other commercial property sectors like apartments. Apartment buildings, long considered a real-estate haven, are emerging as the next major trouble spot in...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? Are rates going to drop quickly like in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns. At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some very important items that will cost taxpayers millions or considerably more as government...
US labor productivity tumbled by 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023 – the largest decline in worker output per hour since 1947, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. What does declining productivity mean for interest rates, commercial and residential...
Although the market rejoiced in the recent fed “skip”, as you dig into the numbers more the outcome is a lot less sanguine. Why does inflation continue running hotter than anticipated? What does this mean for interest rates and real estate? What happens when...
Big changes are ahead for automated appraisals. The government feels that automated models show bias in valuation so they have proposed a new rule that will radically alter appraisals. Unfortunately, the new rules will have some large unintended consequences for...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than just before the pandemic. What categories are...
US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
A lot has changed since my year end update, four major banks have collapsed, and the market is now signaling a recession with interest rates beginning to fall. What does this mean for real estate in the second half of the year? Are there any big changes to my...
Although the spring real estate market has slowed drastically from the pandemic days, the bottom has not fallen out. Quite the opposite has occurred, in suburban markets and sunbelt cities, real estate keeps charging higher. A good example is Boulder, CO, a...
The share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year, and most of the new arrivals in that category were among the country’s higher earners (greater than 100k), a new study shows. Furthermore 24% had issues paying their bills in...
