The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
The mortgage industry should be prepared for large increases in insurance premiums up to 50% according to the Situs Whitepaper. Jennifer Rasmussen, one of the reports authors stated that the average homeowner “was not cognizant of the sheer magnitude of these...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What does...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What...
It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year. Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs. What...
Wow, what a year. In December the market was anticipating as many as 4 rate cuts this year. At the same time the federal reserve was doing a victory dance on pulling of a soft landing. Fast forward and inflation is still hot and there is now a question of if...
In economics there is no free lunch and you can’t spend forever without paying the piper. A new recent tax proposal keeps spending while drastically increasing taxes on real estate owners. The new plan eliminates the 1031 exchange and the step up in basis upon...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did an analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off (chart above is my portfolio). In...
States have traditionally set rental regulations including zoning, evictions, etc… but that is all set to change with the president’s new proposal. The federal government will now be assuming many of the powers that were granted to the states. The biggest change is...
The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the leading drivers of real estate prices. How true is this statement? Will the new commission structure for realtors lead to a reduction...
According to everything I’ve read, the economy is humming along. Economic growth is good, the labor market is healthy, and a soft landing is all but inevitable. At the same time lenders are acting polar opposite of what we should expect. Why are lenders all the...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability. Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
Big changes to how real estate has been bought and sold are scheduled for July. Why is this settlement the most groundbreaking change in real estate since the internet. What is in the most recent settlement? How will home buyers and sellers be impacted by the...
When I was writing this article rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. Where do...
It is crazy how far technologically we have come, but at the same time how fragile our infrastructure is. On of the largest cities in Atlanta (Fulton County) recently had a cyber “incident” which shut down the city and halted all real estate closings. This...
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? What does this mean for real estate prices over...
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