I think most real estate pros would agree that the recent run up in prices in many areas throughout the country is concerning. Are there leading indicators of what could be to come? Take a look at charts of two high end ski towns Aspen and Telluride, CO from the charts it looks like the all clear with prices continuing to rise, but is there something lurking beneath the surface? On the chart below, what do you notice? Why should we all care what happens in markets like Aspen and Telluride? How can they be used as a prediction tool for other real estate markets?
Why should we watch high end markets like Aspen as a predictor of other markets?
If we look at the last cycle, we saw that in more expensive markets the real estate pullback started well before the rest of the country. Aspen is the epitome of the ultra-luxury market with a median home price of around 14 million which is why it is important to take note of the market trends occurring here. If we study the last cycle, the ultra-wealthy saw the writing on the wall of the imminent downturn before general America and began taking steps to protect themselves months before the rest of general America. With the wealthy pulling back, is this a precursor of the next cycle?
What is in the data in Aspen and Telluride real estate?
Aspen: So far this year, home sales have been the slowest since the Covid boom, which kicked off a period of record prices and transactions in the tony ski destination. Aspen home sales dropped 32% in the first six months of 2026 compared with the same period of last year, while sales at or above $10 million plummeted 42.6%, according to Tim Estin of Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty, who tracks the market.
“We came off a really strange and unusual ski season,” said Carrie Wells of Coldwell Banker Mason Morse. “That had an effect on our real-estate market.”
Aspen’s market began to cool last year amid tariff talks and the war with Iran, real-estate agents said. Then a drought this winter impacting the Western U.S. led to record-low snowfall in the region.
Telluride: Telluride like Aspen is seeing reduced volumes with the number of sold transactions down around 13% and yet median home prices are staying flat or slightly increasing
Sales Volumes down, but prices staying high or heading higher
It is pretty interesting to see sales volumes drop dramatically in both Aspen and Telluride and yet median home prices don’t seem to be impacted (see chart at top of the article). This begs the question should we care just about prices or are the declining volumes also worrisome?
In typical cycles falling volumes ultimately translate into lower prices. For example, we have seen some lower sales prices of trophy homes in Aspen. In mid-July, billionaire Bill Koch’s 52-acre ranch—which was once asking $125 million—sold at auction for $33.515 million. This is an amazing price drop, but is this indicative of a larger problem?
What is causing Aspen and Telluride volumes to decline.
Unfortunately, nobody knows the true reason since the purchases in the high end markets are purely discretionary (sorry to say nobody really “needs” a 14 million dollar house with leather on the walls). So in any cycle discretionary purchases are cut first.
Here are four factors I see influencing the sharp drop off in sales in these markets:
- Global uncertainty. The list is very long from China to Iran to possible trade wars and everything in between
- Inflation expectations: inflation continues to outpace expectations leading to higher treasury rates which ultimately impacts spending power and could derail the stock market
- General economic unease: There is a general consensus of uncertainty in the markets that is beginning to flow through to high end discretionary purchases.
- Election: The US midterm elections are some of the most contentious in recent memory regardless of which part of the aisle you sit on the policies of the next congress will influence where the economy goes from here
Unfortunately, I only see one of the four factors above (the election) getting resolved in the near term.
What does the pullback in high end markets like Aspen and Telluride mean for other markets?
Depending on the economic theory you buy into (trickle down or trickle up economics) will influence what the impact to other markets will be. Personally, I think that Telluride and Aspen should serve as a “soft” warning for the economy and a trend to watch for.
The pullback in Aspen and Telluride is a warning that we could be close to a peak with not much more upside in this cycle. Based on lower sales volumes and the disconnect in pricing amongst buyers and sellers this trend should not be easily dismissed.
As the ultra-wealthy pull back their spending on high-end homes it will ultimately trickle down through the rest of the economy. For example, if buyers are pulling back from the Aspen market, are they also delaying other discretionary purchases (cars, boats, etc…)? So far, we haven’t seen any huge slowdowns in spending by the ultra-wealthy but the steep decline in Aspen sales volumes is a warning that the rich are getting nervous about where the economy goes from here.
It is important to remember that spending by wealthy individuals heavily influences market direction, operating more as a reflection of asset performance than a standalone predictor. High-income households account for a disproportionate share of total consumption, meaning their purchasing trends steer specific sectors but remain tightly tethered to the stock market rather than driving it independently. This means that whatever happens in markets like Aspen and Telluride will flow through to other real estate markets.
Head the warning of the ultrawealthy buying 14 million dollar second and third homes that the economy likely will get a bit rocky in the foreseeable future.
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2019/changes-stock-market-affect-consumer-business-confidence
- https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/luxury-homes/aspen-luxury-real-estate-market-snow-ski-4239d713?
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/colorado-snubbed-in-best-places-to-live-report/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/vacancy-tax-on-nightly-rentals-7500-unit-in-major-ski-town/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/interest-rates-jump-again-are-they-going-to-decline/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/will-real-estate-fall-to-pre-covid-levels/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. I’m not an armchair reporter/writer. We are an actual private lender, lending our own money. We service our own loans and own commercial and residential real estate throughout the country.
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Written by Glen Weinberg, COO/ VP Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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