Fannie Mae, one of the largest buyers of residential mortgages has some profound predictions. Will house prices continue their upward trend through 2030? How accurate are the predictions below? How can house prices continue in such a linear fashion? Will...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
The million dollar question is where do interest rates head from here. The Federal reserve has hinted at more upcoming cuts, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Does the federal reserve actually control mortgage rates? How is the treasury department...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. ...
As suspected the March consumer price index came in hotter than expected which should be no surprise to anyone buying groceries, going out to eat, or traveling, everything is considerably more expensive and there continues to be insatiable demand. What does this mean...
When I was writing this article rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. Where do...
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
What does the recent CPI fall mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices? A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? Are rates going to drop quickly like in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns. At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
US labor productivity tumbled by 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023 – the largest decline in worker output per hour since 1947, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. What does declining productivity mean for interest rates, commercial and residential...
Although the market rejoiced in the recent fed “skip”, as you dig into the numbers more the outcome is a lot less sanguine. Why does inflation continue running hotter than anticipated? What does this mean for interest rates and real estate? What happens when...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
No this is not a joke, I had to read the recent Fannie Mae press release multiple times to actually believe what I was reading. Who would have ever thought that someone with a high credit score above 740 would be penalized for having a high score. Under a new rule...
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