US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses. Why the sharp pullback in lending? What does this mean for commercial and residential...
As the banking crisis unfolds, the media continues to focus on depositors and shareholders. Although both are important, there is an even bigger issue that is not being discussed. According to the FDIC, community banks made 67% of all commercial real estate loans in...
As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property prices. Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t think anyone would debate that real estate is now entering a bear market. The million dollar...
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
Commercial real estate is showing the first signs of cooling in more than a year, disrupted by rising interest rates that are already causing some deals to collapse. What is causing the quick change in fortunes in commercial real estate? How will the recent fed...
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with rates easily cresting 6.3%! What does this big surge in interest rates mean to real...
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March's reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with...
ATTOM’s just released January 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report shows there were a total of 23,204 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings reported in January 2022. That figure is up 29 percent from December 2021 and 139 percent from January 2021. Will we see a...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
As mortgage rates have easily breached 5% (last I checked they were at 5.25%), there is a drastic change in real estate that is just beginning to rear its head. At the same time inventory is starting to increase and loan volumes have plummeted. What is the big...
Wow, it has been a wild ride during this pandemic, who thought there would be a national run on toilet paper. Fortunately, those days are over. You can now readily pick up Charmin (or whatever you like). The market is also starting to witness this transformation...
First I hope everyone is having a good fall. It is crazy how quickly the year has gone by. It has been quite the ride with last week no exception as the stock market plunged. The key culprit that started the stock market saga is the impending blow up of Evergrande,...
Prices for an array of consumer goods rose less than expected in August in a sign that inflation may be starting to cool, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index increased 5.3% from a year earlier and 0.3% from July. Is inflation really...
The Tony Blair institute recently did a study in the UK regarding remote work and ultimately the impact on employment numbers. What did the UK study predict regarding employment? How will this impact the US labor force? What will be the impact on real estate be? ...
Your taxes will increase $775 Billion dollars according to an analysis by Bloomberg. President Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with three major pillars that will impact real estate pros. 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision (or such a low cap...
Inflation alert: It is usually not a good sign when Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said after the consumer price index report “I was surprised”. I am not sure what rock people are living under, but everything has increased in price from gasoline to restaurant...
President Biden has proposed an increase in long term capital gains from their current 15-20% to 43% for the wealthiest. This would be the highest tax paid on income. What is in the new proposal? What does this proposal mean for real estate? How will the 1031...
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