Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation? The answer...
What do the increased conforming loan limits mean for real estate? The federal government (aka you the taxpayer) now backs mortgages up to 1.15m. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has jumped sharply over the...
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
What does the recent CPI fall mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices? A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
I wanted to wish you and your families a very Happy Thanksgiving. I have enjoyed working with each of you and your clients over the past year and look forward to working together in the near future. With everything going on politically and geopolitically the...
Fed raises rates 2200% The floor on housing prices drops The real estate party cannot go on forever. We are in a goldilocks scenario where prices are staying high even in the face of doubling mortgage rates. Unfortunately, eventually the porridge cools off! It is...
A federal jury on Tuesday found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high. Two major real estate companies have...
Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available...
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate? Does it really matter which...
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
I continue to hear discussions about the huge plunge in office values while little attention has been given to other commercial property sectors like apartments. Apartment buildings, long considered a real-estate haven, are emerging as the next major trouble spot in...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? Are rates going to drop quickly like in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns. At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation? The answer...
What do the increased conforming loan limits mean for real estate? The federal government (aka you the taxpayer) now backs mortgages up to 1.15m. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has jumped sharply over the...
In a WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates It has been quite a ride for mortgage rates over the last two years. As of this writing mortgage rates were around 7.5% (with no points) which is quite...
US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry. What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
What does the recent CPI fall mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices? A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
I wanted to wish you and your families a very Happy Thanksgiving. I have enjoyed working with each of you and your clients over the past year and look forward to working together in the near future. With everything going on politically and geopolitically the...
Fed raises rates 2200% The floor on housing prices drops The real estate party cannot go on forever. We are in a goldilocks scenario where prices are staying high even in the face of doubling mortgage rates. Unfortunately, eventually the porridge cools off! It is...
A federal jury on Tuesday found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high. Two major real estate companies have...
Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available...
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate? Does it really matter which...
After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the U.S. banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure even if only half of their uninsured depositors (uninsured depositors stand to lose a part...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
I continue to hear discussions about the huge plunge in office values while little attention has been given to other commercial property sectors like apartments. Apartment buildings, long considered a real-estate haven, are emerging as the next major trouble spot in...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? Are rates going to drop quickly like in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns. At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
