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rents

Rents plummet, is this a trend or blip?

    Rents have made a quick U turn.  After rising substantially over the last decade, they are quickly reversing course.  Why are rents now falling?  Is this just a trend or a blip.  Look at the chart below, how does this alter the predictions on rents? ...

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Rates

Rates make a u turn; should you panic?

      Look at this chart above, out of nowhere yields have made a U-turn with long term treasury yields surge to almost 20-year highs and predictions exceeding 6%.  This is exactly the opposite of what economists had predicted at the beginning of the...

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Flood and fire risk

New flood and fire risk scores radically alter values

  Recently Realtor.com and Zillow have been promoting “risk scores” for properties to reflect environmental risk from fires and floods.  These new scores are radically altering real estate prices. What is included in the new scores? Are you impacted? How accurate...

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real estate market

What is hiding in the real estate market?

The housing market has a multi-billion dollar problem that nobody is talking about.  Since the last recession economists harp on the fact that underwriting is so much better now than it was leading up to 2008.  This is correct except for one lender, the federal...

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Expensive

More expensive to live outside a city than in a city

Over the last 30+ years it has historically been more expensive to live inside a city versus the suburbs.  The demand for urban living was huge over the last 20 years.  This narrative is now changing with the suburbs in many major cities poised to overtake urban...

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Zillow

Zillow stock plunges: impact on real estate

    Zillow’s stock has plunged, losing 65% of its value over the last 5 years.  To put this in perspective, the Nasdaq 100 has doubled during this same period.  Why is Zillow, who was once an internet darling, now falling precipitously?  What does this mean...

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stagflation

Is Stagflation dead, what happens now

    There has been considerable talk about stagflation now mirroring the 70s with high energy prices and low growth.  Recently, all the data seemed to be pointing in this direction other than one metric.  The economy keeps growing exceeding pretty much every...

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Real Estate

Big changes to how real estate is bought and sold

    Like many of you, I hate it when I see headlines like above and am always a bit skeptical.  Real estate has basically operated pretty much the same way for the last 20 years or so without any real structural changes, but a recent lawsuit against Zillow...

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Housing

Is this the perfect storm for housing

  In case you missed it, I was recently quoted in a Mortgage Professional America article: Is this the perfect storm for housing.  It is a great article focusing on the impact of interest rates, consumer confidence, etc.. on the spring housing season that is now...

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Real Estate

When will there be a major reset in real estate prices

      Last week I asked all of you when we would see a major reset in real estate prices? The real estate pros have spoken and as you can see from the chart, the overwhelming choice was there will not be a major reset in the next four years.  Do you...

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Real Estate

When will real estate crash or will it?

  Look at the chart above of consumer delinquencies?  We are now in line with 2017, but is that the real story?  Look at 07 what do you notice?  Will the economy mirror the 08 reset or has something else fundamentally changed?  With the current delinquency rates...

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What does the  Iran war mean for real estate?

What does the  Iran war mean for real estate?

I was a bit surprised at the market reaction, check out the 10 year treasury (above) on the Monday after the war began. I would have predicted the opposite reaction with yields falling.  What are the three primary reasons rates are now rising? What impact does this...

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Housing

Get your own house in order to solve affordability

The Trump administration hasn’t been short of proposals in recent months it says will improve affordability in the housing market and boost Americans’ chances of taking out a mortgage. “All of the proposals are short-term fixes,” Glen Weinberg of Fairview Commercial...

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What happens to the economy, the results will surprise

What happens to the economy, the results will surprise

    Last week I asked all of you what happens to the economy over the next two years ? The real estate pros have spoken and I was a bit surprised by the answers.  There was no clear winner on where the economy heads from here.  What was the key rationale...

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin plunge impact on real estate and economy

Bitcoin has had a wild ride, declining over 50% in over a month plummeting from a high of 120k to 60k.  Check out the chart above.  Why the sudden drop in cryptocurrencies? What does this mean for real estate prices?  Looking at the chart below, how will interest...

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Economy

Has the economy lost its mind

As I was walking on a snow covered trail, I found a blaze orange sweatshirt.  WTF, who loses something like this and doesn’t even notice?  It made me start thinking, has the person lost their mind?  Has the economy lost its mind? Look at three charts below: Gold,...

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30 year mortgage

What will be the average 30 year mortgage rate in 2026

    Last week I asked all of you what will mortgage be one year from now?  The real estate pros have spoken, the majority think that rates will end up around 5.5-6%, with a close second saying 6-6.5%.  What changed from last year. How accurate are these...

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