Last week I asked all of you what will mortgage be one year from now? The real estate pros have spoken, the majority think that rates will end up around 5.5-6%, with a close second saying 6-6.5%. What changed from last year. How accurate are these predictions?
Change in thoughts from last year on rates?
I asked this same question last year to see if the percentages have changed. Take a look at the two charts below (top chart is survey responses in 2025 and bottom chart is the most recent 2026 survey response) The biggest gain is in the predictions of rates being 5-5.5%, this jumped from 5% probability to an almost 20% probability. No clue why the huge change as the top two picks were about the same, but survey takers are definitely leaning more towards lower rates for whatever reason.
Key comment on mortgage rates
I wanted to give a shout out to whomever wrote this comment (survey is anonymous, if you wrote this email me so I can say thank you 😊). This is by far the best explanation of rates I have seen:
As expected, rates stayed high due to uncontrolled deficit spending and lofty costs of living. I always ask people if they had $1mm to invest would they lock it in at 6% for 30 years… everyone says no way. That should say it all. Everyone wants to receive what they are unwilling to personally invest in and that might be an indicator that rates are going to stay high for a long time.
Key insights on Mortgage rates
Thank you everyone for your participation and insights in my survey. The insight in the comments from readers was amazing and I hope everyone gained a good perspective from your fellow readers. My key takeaway from this survey is that mortgage rates are going to stay higher for much longer than anticipated and very few think they will fall back to pandemic lows as there is a much greater tilt towards higher rates. High rates are going to continue to have huge impacts on residential and commercial real estate with much lower volumes and impacts on prices. Thanks again and stay tuned for upcoming surveys 😊
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/will-mortgage-rates-fall-in-2026/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/where-should-you-invest-in-real-estate-in-2026/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/fed-drops-rates-why-did-mortgage-rates-barely-budge/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/phantom-debt-soars-what-does-this-mean-for-real-estate-2/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/never-buy-a-residential-condo/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/the-war-on-landlords/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/house-prices-hit-another-record-should-you-even-care/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/root-cause-of-real-estate-price-declines/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/will-real-estate-fall-to-2020-values/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. I’m not an armchair reporter/writer. We are an actual private lender, lending our own money. We service our own loans and own commercial and residential real estate throughout the country.
My day job is and continues to be private real estate lending/ hard money lending which enables me to have a unique perspective on the market. I don’t accept any paid sponsorships or ads on my blog to ensure accurate information. I’ve been writing this for almost 20 years and have over 30k subscribers. Please like and share my blogs on linkedin, twitter, facebook, and other social media and forward to your friends 😊. I would greatly appreciate it.
Fairview is a hard money lender specializing in private money loans / non-bank real estate loans in Georgia, Colorado, and Florida. We are recognized in the industry as the leader in hard money lending/ Private Lending with no upfront fees or any other games. We fund our own loans and provide honest answers quickly. Learn more about Hard Money Lending through our free Hard Money Guide. To get started on a loan all we need is our simple one page application (no upfront fees or other games).
Written by Glen Weinberg, COO/ VP Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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