Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards, lines of credit, etc… Is some consumer debt better/worse than others for the...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
“Our model really works in upmarkets, it's going to work in flat markets, it's going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts just 6 short months ago. Unfortunately today this statement could not be further from the truth. ...
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How will this forgiveness impact real estate prices, mortgage rates, and prospective purchasers? What...
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...
“A reckoning is due. Home prices and rents can’t separate as significantly as they have from their long-term fundamental trends without major issues arising in the marketplace,” said Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, in an analysis. “Few...
Commercial real estate is showing the first signs of cooling in more than a year, disrupted by rising interest rates that are already causing some deals to collapse. What is causing the quick change in fortunes in commercial real estate? How will the recent fed...
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repeat of 2008. Which prior cycle will the next recession likely represent? Will it...
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with rates easily cresting 6.3%! What does this big surge in interest rates mean to real...
While in other countries real estate is slowing, home price growth in 20 US cities picked up for the fourth straight month with Tampa, Florida, showing the biggest gains. March's reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with...
One of the world’s bubbliest real estate housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
As mortgage rates have easily breached 5% (last I checked they were at 5.25%), there is a drastic change in real estate that is just beginning to rear its head. At the same time inventory is starting to increase and loan volumes have plummeted. What is the big...
The average time someone spends in a home has increased from 8.7 years in 2010 to over 13 years in 2020; a whopping 50% increase. How is this impacting house prices? What caused the “break” in the game of musical chairs leading to the inventory shortage? How are...
The federal housing finance agency (FHFA), the largest buyer of mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fannie/Freddie), announced huge changes to there fee structure. In particular they are targeting high cost loans with big jumps for second...
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