As suspected the March consumer price index came in hotter than expected which should be no surprise to anyone buying groceries, going out to eat, or traveling, everything is considerably more expensive and there continues to be insatiable demand. What does this mean...
According to everything I’ve read, the economy is humming along. Economic growth is good, the labor market is healthy, and a soft landing is all but inevitable. At the same time lenders are acting polar opposite of what we should expect. Why are lenders all the...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Senators are now jumping on the bandwagon pushing the federal reserve to “immediately” cut rates to help the real estate market and affordability. Unfortunately, the senators do not fully grasp how...
Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning. Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
Big changes to how real estate has been bought and sold are scheduled for July. Why is this settlement the most groundbreaking change in real estate since the internet. What is in the most recent settlement? How will home buyers and sellers be impacted by the...
When I was writing this article rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. Where do...
There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses. This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country. Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down? What does this mean for real estate prices over...
We have heard a ton of good news recently regarding inflation. Inflation has come down dramatically from its peak and the market is pricing in almost a 100% probability of an elusive soft landing. Is inflation really coming down as fast as the consumer price index...
Soft Landing base case, impact on real estate Every realtor newsletter I have received predicts an increase in sales and a great real estate market is 2024 due to lower mortgage rates. Will this come to fruition? Will we have a “soft landing” in 2024 and which will...
Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housing prices or did something else that occurred during Covid radically alter the market? ...
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
The market keeps predicting a goldilocks scenario with 100% certainty where inflation falls without much if any impact on residential real estate. The “soft landing” will occur at the same time interest rates have skyrocketed and supposedly the consumer...
There has been a ton of talk regarding the lawsuits against the National Association of realtors, but from a practical perspective what does this mean for the market? Will buyer’s agent commissions be eliminated? One realtor association is not waiting for more...
Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift. Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer. Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation? The answer...
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