As I was hiking with my family almost at treeline in Colorado, one of my dogs suddenly went on point. To our surprise there was a brown bear sauntering through the field (sorry looks like a brown sheep as we are a good distance away on a ridge). In 30 years we...
Will there be a recession? Jobs, trucking, Fed cuts and consumer data and their effect on real estate.
Heavy trucks signal recession my data says the opposite
Look at the chart above, there is a direct correlation between heavy truck sales and GDP growth which is one of the best indicators for the health of the economy. As you can see heavy truck sales plummeted, which points to a recession. On the flip...
Federal reserve cuts rates, should you rejoice?
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
The largest buyer of mortgages not buying a soft landing; what are mortgage rates in 2024?
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
US bank lending slumps by most on record; The fed now predicts a big change
US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses. Why the sharp pullback in lending? What does this mean for commercial and residential...
Inflation remains sticky, will interest rates remain high, can the fed achieve a soft landing?
Inflation continues to stick around with core CPI running near record highs. This will keep the federal reserve on a likely path to hike rates once again in May. What does this mean for interest rates and real estate? What happens when interest rates finally...










