Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
The economy is currently in a “transition” phase. To determine if the sun is setting on our current cycle, it is critical to watch for leading indicators of where we might be heading. One of the strongest predictors of a recession is consumer purchases of one...
The economists forecasting the jobs data missed big time, with the recent jobs report almost double their predictions. Why is job growth still surging while interest rates hit 20 year highs. What does this mean for future interest rate increases? Does this change...
Big changes are ahead for automated appraisals. The government feels that automated models show bias in valuation so they have proposed a new rule that will radically alter appraisals. Unfortunately, the new rules will have some large unintended consequences for...
In only a couple of months, the world has changed substantially. In December, inflation was supposedly decreasing rapidly and the odds of a soft landing were non existent. Fast forward a few months and inflation is running hot, consumers are spending like crazy,...
Beginning in March of 2023, Freddie Mac, the largest buyer of mortgages is drastically changing the seasoning requirements for any loans it purchases which basically means any new conventional conforming loan will have to follow the new rules. What big changes are...
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estate sales? Will the lower rates be enough to turn around the slowing market? Will rates...
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
We are in a new paradigm for real estate. With talks of a recession getting louder, what does this mean for real estate. In 2008/9 real estate was radically different than today. Companies like VRBO and Airbnb were not even around. How will the next recession be...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How will this forgiveness impact real estate prices, mortgage rates, and prospective purchasers? What...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
“A reckoning is due. Home prices and rents can’t separate as significantly as they have from their long-term fundamental trends without major issues arising in the marketplace,” said Ken Johnson, an economist at Florida Atlantic University, in an analysis. “Few...
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates .5% as expected. The market originally rallied and then plummeted 5% the next day. The fed made a colossal error and the stock and bond markets are not buying their guidance. What did the fed say at the meeting that...
The average time someone spends in a home has increased from 8.7 years in 2010 to over 13 years in 2020; a whopping 50% increase. How is this impacting house prices? What caused the “break” in the game of musical chairs leading to the inventory shortage? How are...
According to Zillow, house prices will continue to skyrocket in 2022 with hot markets posting gains of 25% plus. What factors are driving these predictions? How accurate are Zillow's 2022 predictions for appreciation? How does Zillow’s estimates compare with the...
Initially when Ukraine was invaded the stock market dropped precipitously over 800 points during the day only to make a huge rebound into positive territory. What does this volatility mean for interest rates and in turn real estate? Does the invasion change the path...
Inflation plowed ahead at its fastest 12-month pace in nearly 40 years during January and substantially higher than any estimates according to a closely watched gauge the Labor Department released Thursday (CPI). The stock and bond markets are continuing to awaken,...
New York City’s housing market is undergoing a powerful rebound, fueled by New Yorkers trading up, out-of-staters moving in, and others looking beyond the pandemic’s aftershocks to make a long-term bet on the city. On the flip side, Boise prices are up 25% year over...
It has been quite the year for the stock market. As I am writing this blog, the market has already plunged 10% to kick off the year. Morgan Stanley just warned that stocks are more overvalued than the tech bubble. How will this impact real estate? What happened...
Inflation plowed ahead at its fastest 12-month pace in nearly 40 years during December, according to a closely watched gauge the Labor Department released Wednesday. The stock and bond markets are suddenly awake, with mortgage rates skyrocketing almost 4% from a low...
The National Association of Realtors just released their 2022 housing market report. What are their predictions on mortgage rates, appreciation rates, rental rates, and location of purchases? There are a couple of surprises in the data that could radically alter...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2022 and beyond. Interest rates, inflation, and where the pandemic goes from here....
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