As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
Wow, a few weeks ago rates had fallen from a peak of over 7% to almost 6%. Unfortunately the party was short lived as rates are now heading much higher. The recent jobs report was another blow out upping the odds of another half point increase at the next Fed...
In only a couple of months, the world has changed substantially. In December, inflation was supposedly decreasing rapidly and the odds of a soft landing were non existent. Fast forward a few months and inflation is running hot, consumers are spending like crazy,...
Beginning in March of 2023, Freddie Mac, the largest buyer of mortgages is drastically changing the seasoning requirements for any loans it purchases which basically means any new conventional conforming loan will have to follow the new rules. What big changes are...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Essentially whatever interest rates do the market reacts accordingly. For example if rates rise, sales fall and vice versa. Are rates really the driver of the slow down in real estate sales? If rates...
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estate sales? Will the lower rates be enough to turn around the slowing market? Will rates...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards, lines of credit, etc… Is some consumer debt better/worse than others for the...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
As of the writing of this article, President’s Biden’s plan is to forgive 10k in student loan per each borrower and further extend the payment pause until year end. How will this forgiveness impact real estate prices, mortgage rates, and prospective purchasers? What...
The federal reserve did an analysis of what has led to the surge in housing prices and has a conclusive answer; the driver of high prices is not that we don’t have enough houses as the media has been claiming. What is the real culprit behind soaring prices? Is there...
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs - known as the spot market - are skidding. Why are trucking rates...
One of the world’s bubbliest real estate housing markets is tilting from sellers to buyers with dizzying speed. Canadian home prices fell for the first time in two years as a rapid rise in interest rates looks set to threaten one of the world’s hottest housing...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
The Federal Reserve just raised interest rates .5% as expected. The market originally rallied and then plummeted 5% the next day. The fed made a colossal error and the stock and bond markets are not buying their guidance. What did the fed say at the meeting that...
The federal housing finance agency (FHFA), the largest buyer of mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fannie/Freddie), announced huge changes to there fee structure. In particular they are targeting high cost loans with big jumps for second...
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