For years interest rates were the number one indicator for real estate prices. In this cycle interest rates have more than doubled yet real estate prices have barely budged. If we look back at 2008, the impetus for the large real estate crash was rising interest...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
Although the spring real estate market has slowed drastically from the pandemic days, the bottom has not fallen out. Quite the opposite has occurred, in suburban markets and sunbelt cities, real estate keeps charging higher. A good example is Boulder, CO, a...
Last week, the president announced an action that will save homebuyers and homeowners with new FHA-insured mortgages $1500 per year (assuming a 500k home), lowering housing costs for an estimated 850,000 home buyers and homeowners in 2023. On the surface, the change...
As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products. This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
In only a couple of months, the world has changed substantially. In December, inflation was supposedly decreasing rapidly and the odds of a soft landing were non existent. Fast forward a few months and inflation is running hot, consumers are spending like crazy,...
Purchasing power from paychecks fell 2.9% for middle-income households in 2022 compared with 2021, while rising 1.5% for the bottom fifth of households and 1.1% for the top, according to the Congressional Budget Office study. Furthermore, nearly 40 percent of...
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property prices. Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
There is definitely allot of doom and gloom heading into 23 with interest rates double their lows, inventory increasing, and prices coming off their highs. In every cycle there will be winners and losers. Where will the real estate opportunities be? Are their certain...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
When I looked over my shoulder and saw these two fellows staring at me, it made me wonder if they were trying to tell me something. I definitely got the hint! I don’t think anyone would debate that real estate is now entering a bear market. The million dollar...
If you haven’t gotten a haircut in a while, you are in for a surprise. Haircut prices like many other services in the economy are experiencing large increases. What does the increase in haircut prices mean for the economy and in turn real estate? Why are haircuts...
What a week it has been in the economy. The federal reserve is still struggling to contain inflation and as a result increased the fed funds rate .75%. After the announcement stocks roared back in a huge “relief” rally and mortgage rates plummeted. Shortly after,...
The federal government in their quest to shore up the mortgage market in 2008 has created some new risks to the housing market. Non bank lenders now make up 74% of the origination volume with only 3 banks even making the list. What does this mean for the mortgage...
Most economists are convinced that there will be a recession soon, although nobody knows whether it is 3,6 or 12 months away. The good news is that this recession should not be a repeat of 2008. Which prior cycle will the next recession likely represent? Will it...
All I can say is wow. On a dime, the real estate market changed overnight. I was predicting mortgage rates around 6% over the course of the year. The change happened in one day with rates easily cresting 6.3%! What does this big surge in interest rates mean to real...
Where mortgage rates are heading seems to be the biggest question on everyone’s mind in real estate. As of this writing rates were around 5.821% which is substantially higher than any economists had predicted even a few months ago. What is causing the jump in...
As mortgage rates have easily breached 5% (last I checked they were at 5.25%), there is a drastic change in real estate that is just beginning to rear its head. At the same time inventory is starting to increase and loan volumes have plummeted. What is the big...
The federal housing finance agency (FHFA), the largest buyer of mortgages through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fannie/Freddie), announced huge changes to there fee structure. In particular they are targeting high cost loans with big jumps for second...
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