The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
House prices falling in 11 markets, how accurate is the data?
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Phantom debt soars, what does this mean for real estate?
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
New plan for government to offer 25k to homebuyers
A new plan unveiled by candidate Harris aims to provide up to 25k to every first time homebuyer for a downpayment. Like many of you when I heard the news, I did a double take. What is in the plan? Will the proposed plan increase or decrease house prices? Who pays...
Fed cuts rates half percentage, Why did mortgage rates rise?
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
New Senate bill penalizes investors buying houses
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
Will realtors’ settlement lower home prices? (September 2024 update)
With the realtor settlement now implemented nationwide, the question now is will a reduction in realtor fees lower house prices? The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the...
Fed lowers rates, will mortgage rates rise?
The million dollar question is where do interest rates head from here. The Federal reserve has hinted at more upcoming cuts, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Does the federal reserve actually control mortgage rates? How is the treasury department...
Property Insurance rates set to jump by 50%; why and who pays?
The mortgage industry should be prepared for large increases in insurance premiums up to 50% according to the Situs Whitepaper. Jennifer Rasmussen, one of the reports authors stated that the average homeowner “was not cognizant of the sheer magnitude of these...
What city is now banning Airbnb? Do nightly rentals drive up rents?
Over the years there have been a lot of theories that nightly rentals are increasing long term rents of full-time residents. Recently NY analyzed nightly rentals in various boroughs to calculate the increase in lease rates. This is the first real study I have seen on...
Shortage of homes will keep prices high… think again; Is there really even a shortage?
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
Biden/Harris propose national rent control, what does this mean for prices and supply
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Who is better for real estate Harris or Trump ?
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
House prices hit another record, what is now driving house prices?
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
Inflation cools in June, what about interest rates and house prices?
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
Banks new motto: Survive until 25, what does this mean for real estate
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
70 Percent more expensive to buy vs rent. What does this mean for real estate prices?
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What does...
Buy vs rent: 70% more expensive. What About Real Estate Prices?
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What...
Will mortgage rates fall significantly in 2024? (June update)
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. ...
Why are home prices rising while mortgage rates stay high?
It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year. Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs. What...
What does higher for longer rates mean for real estate?
Wow, what a year. In December the market was anticipating as many as 4 rate cuts this year. At the same time the federal reserve was doing a victory dance on pulling of a soft landing. Fast forward and inflation is still hot and there is now a question of if...
US government plans to unlock 850 billion in homeowners equity
You have to hand it to the Federal government, they are always working to solve problems that do not exist. Currently there is a new proposal from the federal government (via Freddie Mac) to insure second mortgages/home equity lines of credit similar to first...
New tax plan keeps spending by taxing real estate and eliminates 1031
In economics there is no free lunch and you can’t spend forever without paying the piper. A new recent tax proposal keeps spending while drastically increasing taxes on real estate owners. The new plan eliminates the 1031 exchange and the step up in basis upon...
Economy not as solid as headline numbers suggest
It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric. As a lender I just did an analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off (chart above is my portfolio). In...


























