Check out the chart above. House prices this summer have hit yet another record? On the flip side, look at the chart below of Denver and Atlanta. Why the huge difference? What is happening in today’s real estate environment? Is the data above or below correct? What happens the remainder of the year in real estate?
What was in the data on home prices?
Home prices hit an all-time high in June, even as the housing market continued its post-pandemic slump.
The median price for an existing home sold last month was $435,300, besting the previous record, set in June 2024, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
How are prices holding up while volumes fall?
Even though prices nationally are rising, pending home sales volumes just hit a 13 year low. “Today’s housing market is really haves and have-nots,” says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
The strongest part of the market now is the high end. Homes above $1 million saw the biggest sales spike last month, rising 14% over a year earlier. As prices rise, more homes are now priced over the million-dollar mark. An analysis by the real estate brokerage Redfin last year found that 8.5% of U.S. homes were worth $1 million or more.
Denver Atlanta and Indianapolis are telling a different story
Looking at the chart above it is apparent what is happening with the data. Places like Indianapolis are continuing to increase while Atlanta and Denver are falling off their highs. Essentially, the national data is averaging everything and concealing what is really happening in your market.
Who cares about national statistics as real estate is hyper local
We are constantly blasted with headlines showing real estate prices rising, inventory rising, etc… At the end of the day, who cares! National statistics are not the greatest metric for real estate as it is not like someone owns a house in each market and can average the values across the entire market.
Real estate is hyper local. Look at Denver and Atlanta, if you are in these markets, you are less optimistic on the real estate market as values are falling off their peaks. On the flip side if you are in Indianapolis prices are still rising and sellers are likely much happier than in Denver or Atlanta.
The new paradigm, the stuck market.
The only saving grace of looking at data on the national level is to look at larger trends in the market that are not necessarily market specific like median home price, inventory, etc… Regardless of what the statistics are saying nationally or even in your local market, there is a new phenomenon that is emerging in real estate, the stuck market. Although it is not some crazy jargon, the most accurate way to describe residential real estate in almost every market is that it is basically stuck.
Buyers and sellers are not doing much of anything. Sellers refuse to lower prices while buyers are awaiting a drop in future interest rates that may never happen. This is leading to an “impasse” in the real estate market with inventories rising while buyers sit on the sidelines. The remainder of this year looks to follow the same trends as we are seeing now.
Eventually the market becomes unstuck
Although the market is currently stuck today, at some point everything changes and the logjam will break. With the huge rise in inventory in markets like Atlanta and Denver, the only outcome will be lower prices. Although I don’t see a 2008 repeat, depending on where you are and how badly someone needs to sell it will likely be unpleasant over the next 18-24 months.
Summary
National statistics for the most part on not really relevant for what is occurring in your particular market. As shown above, Indianapolis is performing substantially better than Denver or Atlanta but yet the national statistics lump everything together rendering the conclusions basically useless. In Denver, there is already a real estate recession with prices off around 10% from their highs even though nationally prices are hitting record highs, this doesn’t matter at all if you are trying to sell a house in Denver.
The only saving grace in the national data is that you can pick up generic trends happening across market. In this case, it is quickly apparent that the market is essentially stuck with most sellers unwilling to come to terms with the market realities of increasing inventory. On the flip side buyers are also unwilling to come to terms with the market realities that interest rates will be where they are for a long time.
Eventually the impasse will break, and the buildup of inventory will release a huge downward push on prices regardless of what sellers believe of the market. This will result in a rapidly changing market in 6-12 months from now. Although 2008 isn’t in the cards, the upcoming reset in the market will be painful for anyone who must sell. Note, the pain will not be spread evenly so don’t look at the national statistics to guide you on your particular market.
Additional Reading/Resources
- https://www.npr.org/2025/07/26/nx-s1-5478757/home-price-record-mortgage-rates
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/us-real-estate-market-high-prices-mortgage-rates-hamper-spring-home-selling?srnd=homepage-americas
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/is-real-estate-stuck-until-2026/
- https://coloradohardmoney.com/why-is-denver-real-estate-falling/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. I’m not an armchair reporter/writer. We are an actual private lender, lending our own money. We service our own loans and own commercial and residential real estate throughout the country.
My day job is and continues to be private real estate lending/ hard money lending which enables me to have a unique perspective on the market. I don’t accept any paid sponsorships or ads on my blog to ensure accurate information. I’ve been writing this for almost 20 years and have over 30k subscribers. Please like and share my blogs on linkedin, twitter, facebook, and other social media and forward to your friends . I would greatly appreciate it.
Fairview is a hard money lender specializing in private money loans / non-bank real estate loans in Georgia, Colorado, and Florida. We are recognized in the industry as the leader in hard money lending/ Private Lending with no upfront fees or any other games. We fund our own loans and provide honest answers quickly. Learn more about Hard Money Lending through our free Hard Money Guide. To get started on a loan all we need is our simple one page application (no upfront fees or other games).
Written by Glen Weinberg, COO/ VP Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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