At first glance, 2020 looked like smooth sailing. But the National Association of Business Economists (NABE)—a respected body whose past presidents include Alan Greenspan—recently released their latest economic outlook, placing the odds of a recession in the next 18...
If you missed the article in the Wall Street Journal, you need to read it. The reporter demonstrated how he went dumpster diving and resold the items on Amazon. This is not a new concept and appears to be happening quite frequently to unsuspecting buyers. ...
Yes, it is hard to believe but you, along with me and millions of others, are actually making mortgage rates go down and therefore real estate relatively less expensive. How is this possible? How are your thoughts influencing long term rates and in turn real...
Realtors are typically an optimistic bunch so I was surprised at the recent forecast out of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicting a 2% decline in closings next year. Mortgage rates are at historic lows and should remain low through 2020 and wage...
Happy Holidays to you and your family. With 2019 coming to an end quickly it is time for my 2020 real estate market predictions. 2020 is shaping up to be considerably more exciting than 2019 economically speaking! The main economic drivers in 2020 will be consumer...
The jobs report last week was a welcome surprise beating expectations with 266k jobs created, almost 50% more than expectations. This is the lowest jobless rate since 1969 underpinning a strong consumer that continues to spend and drive the bull market. What does...
The two largest purchases by consumers are houses and cars. Cars are starting to look like the prior housing debacle. Some 33% of people who traded in cars to buy new ones in the first nine months of 2019 had negative equity, compared with 28% five years ago and 19%...
The National Association of realtors last week voted to ban the use of “whisper listings”/ “Pocket listings”. The new rule will require listing brokers who are participants in a multiple listing service (MLS) to submit their listing to the MLS within one business day...
According to ATTOM data, gross profit on home flipping has fallen six quarters in a row and eight of the last 10, and now stands at the lowest level since Q4 2011. At the same time the number of flips across the country has increased to 7.3% of all sales and number...
The Federal reserve dropped the federal funds rate again which wasn’t a big surprise as the market was pricing in a 96% probability of a rate cut. This is the third cut this year effectively creating a “floor” under real estate. How did the federal reserve create a...
In September, Toyota's year over year auto sales plummeted 16.5%, Honda down 14%, and Nissan down almost 18%. The severity of the slide stokes fears that a long-anticipated car sales collapse may be arriving. Why should you care about Autos in real estate? Autos are...
It is interesting to watch the release of indexes like the Case Schiller on a regular basis. Many of the same cities continue to pop up like Atlanta and Denver. Why? What continues to drive markets like Atlanta and Denver? Can you predict what cities will show up...
With recession talks all over the headlines and stock markets tumbling around the globe are you ready whenever the next real estate cycle occurs? Do you know the mushroom theory and how it can help you plan for the next cycle? I developed this theory after...
The National Association of Business economists (NABE), the premier professional association for business economists counting Alan Greenspan as their past president, just released their business outlook predictions placing the odds of a recession in the next two years...
Recently the news has been overwhelming on the China trade war. Last week there was a trade meeting surrounded by fanfare, then there were the tweets from the president announcing more tariffs. The US markets plunged losing 2% in one day and bonds gained. What is...
I took the pic after the 4th outside of Breckenridge, CO (has nothing to do with the article, but thought you would enjoy). Last week the US June jobs report was released that toppled all expectations. After a week May report the job numbers in June did not disappoint...
I’ve been hearing rumblings of this suit for months and I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many large real estate brokerages could...
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently announced that inflation is transitory. Sound familiar? Janet Yellen, the prior fed chair, used this same term 2017 and 2018. Seems like we are in an extended “transit”. Why? Are we headed for the next...
GDP numbers came in great far exceeding expectations at 3.2%. President Trump tweets “we knocked it out of the park”. At the same time inflation remains low/nonexistent which has enabled mortgage rates to fall over 1%. Even with all this good news, home sales...
Credit scores have been skyrocketing recently. Is this a good thing? Have 15 million consumer’s credit habits changed drastically in the last 10 years? What are the risks from “grade inflation” of credit scores? Why are scores rising so rapidly? How does this...
The Federal housing administration over the last several years has been quietly easing the lending standards to increase home ownership. Montgomery, the director of the FHA, did an abrupt change this month tightening standards “to maintain a better balance of...
The Yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007! What does this mean and why is this so important for real estate? Can the animals predict our next “storm”? Should we all be listening to our “primal” instincts a bit more? We probably should. I was doing a...
No, I’m not talking about democrats vs. republicans. I am talking about the actual color blue! Regardless of your political affiliations, I would recommend you only invest in areas on the map that are blue. The Brookings institute developed a map ranking the...
Although it is impossible to predict the future unless you were a star in the movie back to the future , history does provide a good indicator of what might happen. With all the recession talk recently it is important to relate the current economic environment back...
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