Warning sign? sales drop 34%, impact on real estate

Warning sign? sales drop 34%, impact on real estate

The economy is currently in a “transition” phase.  To determine if the sun is setting on our current cycle, it is critical to watch for leading indicators of where we might be heading.  One of the strongest predictors of a recession is consumer purchases of one...
Why are home prices rising while mortgage rates stay high?

Why are home prices rising while mortgage rates stay high?

It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year.  Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs.  What...
Interest rates jump again, are they really going to decline this year?

Interest rates jump again, are they really going to decline this year?

As suspected the March consumer price index came in hotter than expected which should be no surprise to anyone buying groceries, going out to eat, or traveling, everything is considerably more expensive and there continues to be insatiable demand.  What does this mean...
Will mortgage rates fall significantly in 2024?

Will mortgage rates fall significantly in 2024?

When I was writing this article rates were hovering right around 7%.  At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market.  On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture.  Where do...
CPI falls, Fed likely done raising

CPI falls, Fed likely done raising

  What does the recent CPI fall  mean for mortgage rates and real estate prices?   A broad slowdown in inflation continued in October, likely ending the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate increases. The slowdown came below most median estimates and the...
16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases.  This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices.  Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...