Take a look at this chart above, focus on the bottom two lines, in Pink is Vail (MTN) and in Green is Target (TGT). Why are they trending the same way? Now look at the purple line Costco, notice a huge divergence? What type of skier/snowboarder are you? What does...
Fannie Mae, one of the largest buyers of residential mortgages has some profound predictions. Will house prices continue their upward trend through 2030? How accurate are the predictions below? How can house prices continue in such a linear fashion? Will...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
We all know rents have increased, but the reason seems to be alluding our elected officials. The new scapegoat for rising rents is being pinned on artificial intelligence as the root cause of high rents and one company in particular. Why is the government now...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
A new plan unveiled by candidate Harris aims to provide up to 25k to every first time homebuyer for a downpayment. Like many of you when I heard the news, I did a double take. What is in the plan? Will the proposed plan increase or decrease house prices? Who pays...
The market was anticipating a much smaller cut by the federal reserve as inflation is still high and employment and spending is holding up. The odds were about 75% for a smaller cut, but the federal reserve definitely surprised with a much larger cut of half a...
The mortgage industry should be prepared for large increases in insurance premiums up to 50% according to the Situs Whitepaper. Jennifer Rasmussen, one of the reports authors stated that the average homeowner “was not cognizant of the sheer magnitude of these...
Over the years there have been a lot of theories that nightly rentals are increasing long term rents of full-time residents. Recently NY analyzed nightly rentals in various boroughs to calculate the increase in lease rates. This is the first real study I have seen on...
I just saw an article on CNBC with the headline: America is short 5 million houses. The media is proclaiming a housing crisis throughout the country due to the shortage. Ironically at the same time the US has hit a record for the slowest population growth in the...
It is no secret that housing prices and in turn rents have skyrocketed throughout the country. President Biden, announced a major new action to: “ lower housing costs by limiting rent increases”. Essentially the proposal is nationwide rent control. What is in...
Wow, it is amazing how quickly tides have changed. Look at the chart above of the betting market on the next presidential election right after the assassination attempt. Fast forward and another twist happened over the weekend with President Biden stepping...
It is astonishing that house prices continue higher in the face of high interest rates and a slowing economy. The media keeps pinning the continued appreciation on lack of supply even while listings in places like Denver have jumped 33% year over year. What is...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time June showed the first real slowdown in inflation in the last year. The stock market soared on the slowdown in inflation while the federal reserve took a much more...
There is a new mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. This includes treasury holdings that are underwater, commercial...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What does...
There is a huge premium to buying a property compared to renting. It is now 70% more expensive to buy vs rent a property, which is considerably higher than at any time in the last fifty years. What is causing the large divergence in renting vs buying? What...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists are predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market. On the other hand, the chart above shows a much different picture. ...
It is a bit perplexing; mortgage rates are over 7%, well over double their lows, and yet real estate prices are once again heading higher after a minor pullback late last year. Prices have pivoted from last fall to make a strong comeback and approach new highs. What...
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