Gary Shilling, the author of the Case-Shilling real estate index, accurately predicted the last real estate bust. He has come out with recent predictions that throw a cold towel on how this housing cycle ends. Are we at a bear market or a peak in real estate? Where...
New York City’s housing market is undergoing a powerful rebound, fueled by New Yorkers trading up, out-of-staters moving in, and others looking beyond the pandemic’s aftershocks to make a long-term bet on the city. On the flip side, Boise prices are up 25% year over...
Wow, it has been a wild ride during this pandemic, who thought there would be a national run on toilet paper. Fortunately, those days are over. You can now readily pick up Charmin (or whatever you like). The market is also starting to witness this transformation...
The federal government is about to back mortgages of nearly $1 million for the first time. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected to jump sharply in 2022, a reflection of the rapid appreciation in home...
In my blogs I have talked about how typically when we have large inflation this will drastically slow the real estate market as interest rates rise. With all the craziness from the Covid bump occurring could just the opposite occur? Will inflation actually increase...
First I hope everyone is having a good fall. It is crazy how quickly the year has gone by. It has been quite the ride with last week no exception as the stock market plunged. The key culprit that started the stock market saga is the impending blow up of Evergrande,...
U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early August to the lowest level in nearly a decade as Americans grew more concerned about the economy’s prospects. It was the lowest reading for the measure since 2011. A sudden drop of this magnitude is extremely rare for the index. ...
An unexpectedly strong jobs number for July has bolstered the case for investors who believe Treasury yields will head higher over the rest of the year. Goldman, BofA, and Blackrock are predicting a 50% rise in treasuries by year end. What does this mean for mortgage...
According to a recent Well’s Fargo economic report: the forecast for the level of services spending is expected to swell to more than four and a half years of typical spending packed into nine months. What does this transition from goods to services mean for real...
The federal reserve on multiple occasions has called the recent spike in inflation “transitory” yet inflation just rose to its highest level since 1982. Will inflation increase over the short term and then fall to a much lower level in the future? Why is the answer...
Your taxes will increase $775 Billion dollars according to an analysis by Bloomberg. President Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with three major pillars that will impact real estate pros. 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision (or such a low cap...
Do residential rental properties with one to four units and second-home mortgages carry more risk? Apparently so says the U.S. Treasury Department. Such loans underwritten by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will end up costing you more under restrictions quietly announced...
There is a tidal wave of distressed homeowners who will need help,” Dave Uejio, the CFPB’s acting director, said in a statement; companies “that are unable to adequately manage loss mitigation can expect the bureau to take enforcement or supervisory action.” At the...
We are now well over a year into the pandemic and forbearance/eviction moratoriums abound with property owners and lenders essentially “stuck” with limited or no cash flow. Unfortunately, many in Washington and local governments do not fully understand how real...
I took this pic of a bear in my backyard staring at me while I was sitting on the porch, it was a good reminder.... 1.9 trillion is a huge number flowing through to the economy in one fell swoop. What do both Republican and Democratic economists agree on regarding...
10 million Americans are behind on their mortgage payments, with the majority of these late payments occurring in FHA loans. At the same time Millions are out of work, yet house prices are increasing in most markets. What was in the new forbearance agreement? How...
There has been a flurry of good news with stocks reaching records, talks of more stimulus, and vaccines rolling out. Small stocks like Gamestop and AMC have been off the charts minting new millionaires every day. What does all this mean for real estate? How will...
Denmark, the country with the longest history of negative central bank rates is offering homeowners 20-year loans at a fixed interest rate of zero. This is very similar to the zero percent financing on cars in the US except you are buying a house. What does this...
The Urban Institute think tank says nearly two out of three loans made in 2019 would fail to meet at least one of the stricter standards lenders have imposed since March. Banks are tripping over themselves to be the first to hedge against future downside risks and...
I wanted to highlight Atlanta, Georgia as it is one of the top ten metro areas in the country, we have an office there, and we are intimately familiar with the real estate market. Furthermore, it is a typical large city and a good indicator for the country as...
Presidential nominee Biden has rolled out his proposed tax plan with two major pillars that will impact real estate pros. 1) Elimination of the 1031 exchange provision 2) elimination of long term capital gains. These two changes, if passed, will have huge...
Nike is a bellwether for the retail industry and general economy generating over 40 billion in annual revenue making it one of the largest athletic retailers in the world. Since 2006 revenue has consistently increased every year. In June, Nike announced that sales...
We are in an interesting economic cycle. In the last recession, house prices plummeted up to 60% in some areas. We currently hit the highest unemployment rate since the great depression yet house prices continue to appreciate. This is exactly the opposite of what...
I hope everyone is doing well in light of the recent events. I was recently asked: “Did the Federal Reserve trigger a housing market crash?” What happened? The Coronavirus struck, the fed had to act swiftly to mitigate the damage, but by flooding the market with...
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