Last week I asked all of you how will the Iran war impact the economy? The real estate pros have spoken and as you can see from the chart, the overwhelming choice was that the economy falls modestly. What was the key rationale behind the predictions.
Iran war throws predictions out the window
It is interesting how on event can upend so many economic models. Before the Iran war, the majority felt the economy would stay flat or increase modestly and now those predictions have changed. The million dollar question is whether the war will wrap up quickly with minimal economic disruptions or will there be longer term consequences.
Summary of the rationale behind Iran war economic predictions
Here are the top comments:
- I believe that this military operation itself will be over with this week. At least phase one. Phase 2 will be a minor ground operation, probably. But eliminating the threat of nuclear from Iran is basically over. This should stabilize and make global consumer demand increase as oil exports also increased through the Straight.
- At this point, one can only guess at what will happen to the economy. That being said, when the future is uncertain investors get cautious.
- US gov’t debt continues to rise with no end in sight. Unemployment remains ugly because companies do not want to invest in expansion with global uncertainty, his 5-month tariffs continue to place a restraint on the economy. Without adults in DC we will struggle, but not collapse.
- The surge in energy prices will cause a stagflation scenario for the remainder of the year
- There will be relief in the air as spring kicks in and all those bombs are going to have to be replaced. So all that govt spending and general decease in anxiety along with the lower interest rates will get buyers and sellers off the sidelines.
Key insights on where the economy goes as a result of the Iran war
Thank you everyone for your participation and insights in my survey. The insights in the comments from readers was amazing and I hope everyone gained a good perspective from your fellow readers. My key takeaway from this survey is that we are in a precarious state with a much greater risk for downside risks than upside risks.
The key to what happens will be how the Iran war is ultimately resolved and how quickly. If the prediction markets are correct, the majority of bets are saying by May 31st so we still have a ways to go. We will have to wait for better data to see how it all shakes out. Thanks again and stay tuned for upcoming surveys 😊
Additional Reading/Resources:
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/what-does-the-iran-war-mean-for-real-estate/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/has-the-economy-lost-its-mind/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/will-mortgage-rates-fall-in-2026/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/where-should-you-invest-in-real-estate-in-2026/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/fed-drops-rates-why-did-mortgage-rates-barely-budge/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/phantom-debt-soars-what-does-this-mean-for-real-estate-2/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/never-buy-a-residential-condo/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/the-war-on-landlords/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/house-prices-hit-another-record-should-you-even-care/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/root-cause-of-real-estate-price-declines/
- https://www.fairviewlending.com/will-real-estate-fall-to-2020-values/
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Glen Weinberg personally writes these weekly real estate blogs based on his real estate experience as a lender and property owner. I’m not an armchair reporter/writer. We are an actual private lender, lending our own money. We service our own loans and own commercial and residential real estate throughout the country.
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Written by Glen Weinberg, COO/ VP Fairview Commercial Lending. Glen has been published as an expert in hard money lending, real estate valuation, financing, and various other real estate topics in Bloomberg, Businessweek ,the Colorado Real Estate Journal, National Association of Realtors Magazine, The Real Deal real estate news, the CO Biz Magazine, The Denver Post, The Scotsman mortgage broker guide, Mortgage Professional America and various other national publications.
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