This newest property tax measure that passed has been deemed the most controversial in the US. What was in the new measure? What state (hint it wasn't a far right or left state)passed a controversial law to protect private property rights by...
The chart above is very surprising. When the market is predicting a slowdown or a recession, gold typically rises and treasuries also rise, typically in tandem. The exact opposite is happening now as bond prices are falling and yields are rapidly increasing in the...
For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices. Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
70% of lumber and 30% of drywall comes from Canada which could be subject to tariffs, what does this mean for the average build cost of a house? What does the chart above have to do with Tariffs? Will tariffs meaningfully impact real estate build costs and...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? (hint anyone who bought into...
Look at the graph above, what has caused my closing to surge in 2025 while overall real estate closing volumes have plummeted? What does this mean for real estate? Don’t get me wrong, I like to think the surge in closings is because I’m an amazing lender and a great...
Wow, look at the huge increases in credit scores over the last 15 years. This has occurred even as student debt, auto debt, and credit card debt have all surged. Has the US all the sudden become much more credit worthy or has something else changed? What does this...
Higher income consumers are showing signs of stress. Look at the chart above, from the peak in 2022 higher end consumers intent to spend has dropped almost 25%. What does the chart mean for real estate and the general economy? Why focus on higher end consumers?...
The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
Wow, 2024 was definitely a surprise, at the beginning of the year, there were huge predictions of a rapid decline in rates, fast forward to 2025 and now rates are actually rapidly increasing even after the federal reserve cut short term rates. Why are rates...
Fannie Mae, one of the largest buyers of residential mortgages has some profound predictions. Will house prices continue their upward trend through 2030? How accurate are the predictions below? How can house prices continue in such a linear fashion? Will...
After peaking around 215 dollars, Airbnb stock has taken a tumble of almost 40%. At the same time occupancy of nightly rentals has plummeted from its peak while available listings continue to grow. What does this mean for real estate prices? The two...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
We all know rents have increased, but the reason seems to be alluding our elected officials. The new scapegoat for rising rents is being pinned on artificial intelligence as the root cause of high rents and one company in particular. Why is the government now...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
Amazon now requires all employees to be in the office 5 days a week (hopefully you don't get the office above) What does the five days return to office mean for real estate? The pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing...
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
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