The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
I took the pic above of a house after a small fire in CO. I’m amazed the house had made it. Unfortunately thousands of property owners in LA are not as lucky. The recent fires in LA are estimated to cost upwards of 50 billion making it one of the costliest...
Wow, 2024 was definitely a surprise, at the beginning of the year, there were huge predictions of a rapid decline in rates, fast forward to 2025 and now rates are actually rapidly increasing even after the federal reserve cut short term rates. Why are rates...
Take a look at this chart above, focus on the bottom two lines, in Pink is Vail (MTN) and in Green is Target (TGT). Why are they trending the same way? Now look at the purple line Costco, notice a huge divergence? What type of skier/snowboarder are you? What does...
Fannie Mae, one of the largest buyers of residential mortgages has some profound predictions. Will house prices continue their upward trend through 2030? How accurate are the predictions below? How can house prices continue in such a linear fashion? Will...
After peaking around 215 dollars, Airbnb stock has taken a tumble of almost 40%. At the same time occupancy of nightly rentals has plummeted from its peak while available listings continue to grow. What does this mean for real estate prices? The two...
The above is a picture of my windshield after a chance early morning encounter with an elk; I walked away while my car was basically totaled. Why is 2025 the year of the elk as elk should typically be the least of your worries? What does this mean for the upcoming...
We all know rents have increased, but the reason seems to be alluding our elected officials. The new scapegoat for rising rents is being pinned on artificial intelligence as the root cause of high rents and one company in particular. Why is the government now...
2024 was set to be the big recovery in real estate with rates lowering setting us up for a great 25. Instead, rates are hovering around 7%, inventory is rising, and long term treasuries are pointing to higher rates for longer. What does this mean for 25? ...
When I was writing this article mortgage rates were hovering right around 7%. At the same time economists had been predicting a sharp decline in mortgage rates and a booming 2024 real estate market as the fed has cut rates. On the other hand, the chart above...
The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, has released his 2025 and 2026 predictions for residential real estate and they were a huge surprise. What is Yun predicting for real estate prices, interest rates, and appreciation? How...
There is a mantra being used in small/regional banks that is “survive until 2025”. In essence the theory is that rates will drop precipitously and basically “bail out” many banks’ portfolios. Banks are in turn pushing out maturity dates hoping for a market bail out....
As everyone departs for the Thanksgiving holiday, I wanted to wish you safe travels and a happy holiday season. Although it has been a challenging year for many in real estate due to much higher interest rates than anticipated and much lower sales volumes, there is...
The conventional wisdom is that inflation causes higher interest rates which in turn causes lower housing prices. We are now seeing an interesting phenomenon where housing prices continue to stay high and in some markets head even higher with interest rates double...
Regardless of how you voted, at the end of the day for real estate in particular, does the election of President Trump radically change the trajectory of real estate? What happens to real estate volumes? Will interest rates rise or fall? What happens to values? Why...
Even with falling interest rates, inventory has quickly increased. We have gone from a supposed shortage of housing to an inventory surplus in many hot markets. Home sales in July were at the lowest recorded level. What is driving the increase in inventory? Will...
Amazon now requires all employees to be in the office 5 days a week (hopefully you don't get the office above) What does the five days return to office mean for real estate? The pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing...
The stock market went crazy after the half point cut by the federal reserve? Should you rejoice like the stock market? Take a look at the chart above showing all the recessions in the last 30 or so years. Do you notice a trend? What is the chart telling us...
According to a new Realtor.com report, among America’s 50 biggest cities, 20 show annual price declines since last year, and the metro with the steepest drop might surprise you. What markets are dropping the fastest and why? How accurate is the data they are using? ...
Consumer spending in the world’s largest economy has been so resilient in the face of stubbornly high inflation that economists and traders have had to repeatedly rip up their forecasts for slowing growth and interest-rate cuts. Is Phantom Debt driving consumer...
A new plan unveiled by candidate Harris aims to provide up to 25k to every first time homebuyer for a downpayment. Like many of you when I heard the news, I did a double take. What is in the plan? Will the proposed plan increase or decrease house prices? Who pays...
Vice president Harris announced her support of a recently introduced bill aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that she says is driving up home prices. This new bill is one of the cornerstones of Harris’ housing policy. The Stop Predatory...
With the realtor settlement now implemented nationwide, the question now is will a reduction in realtor fees lower house prices? The big premise of the commission lawsuit against the national association of realtors is that high commission fees were one of the...
The million dollar question is where do interest rates head from here. The Federal reserve has hinted at more upcoming cuts, what does this mean for mortgage rates? Does the federal reserve actually control mortgage rates? How is the treasury department...
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