The largest buyer of mortgages not buying a soft landing; what are mortgage rates in 2024?

The largest buyer of mortgages not buying a soft landing; what are mortgage rates in 2024?

Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy.  What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Banks face higher capital requirements:  50% of banks disappear.

Banks face higher capital requirements:  50% of banks disappear.

Major banks are facing one of the biggest regulatory overhauls since the financial crisis of 2008, setting up a major clash over the amount of capital that they have to set aside to weather downturns.  At the same time regional banks are already struggling with...
Why do consumers keep spending and how does this impact real estate

Why do consumers keep spending and how does this impact real estate

According to a recent Federal Reserve Report, fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during the COVID refinance boom, and these refinances will have effects on the mortgage market, real estate, and the general economy for years to come. An astonishing 430 billion...
Wages continue higher, productivity falls fastest in 75 years, impact on real estate, inflation, and rates

Wages continue higher, productivity falls fastest in 75 years, impact on real estate, inflation, and rates

US labor productivity tumbled by 7.5% in the first quarter of 2023 – the largest decline in worker output per hour since 1947, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.  What does declining productivity mean for interest rates, commercial and residential...
Hot inflation puts further rate hike in play, impact on real estate

Hot inflation puts further rate hike in play, impact on real estate

Although the market rejoiced in the recent fed “skip”, as you dig into the numbers more the outcome is a lot less sanguine.  Why does inflation continue running hotter than anticipated?  What does this mean for interest rates and real estate?  What happens when...
Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending

Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending

  Interesting times we are in.  Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic.  On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates.  What is driving the continued...