Anytime you turn on the news you hear about high house prices and that the culprit is that supply has not kept up with demand. Is supply really the main culprit of housing prices or did something else that occurred during Covid radically alter the market? ...
There has been a ton of talk regarding the lawsuits against the National Association of realtors, but from a practical perspective what does this mean for the market? Will buyer’s agent commissions be eliminated? One realtor association is not waiting for more...
In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases. This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices. Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Earlier in the year most economists and myself predicted a recession by now, but the cards have changed with most now predicting the opposite, a soft landing. What is a soft landing? Is a soft or hard landing better for real estate? Does it really matter which...
As part of a debt-ceiling agreement forged by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, monthly student loan bills will resume September first. What does the restarting of student loans mean for real estate, interest rates, and the overall economy? How...
It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder. What does the decline in...
Like most, I have been surprised at the recent upward movement in prices. Did we just experience the shortest housing cycle ever? Are housing prices going to continue their recent upward swing? Why are housing prices now moving higher after a very shallow decline...
Both the stock and bond markets are partying like its 99 again. Fannie Mae, the largest buyer of US mortgages, is not buying into the theory that a soft landing is the base case for the economy. What is Fannie Mae predicting for inflation and in turn interest rates? ...
Lawmakers introduced a bill Tuesday aimed at curtailing investor activity in the housing market that they say is driving up home prices. The Stop Predatory Investing Act is targeting single family investors. What is in the newly proposed bill and how will this impact...
I always cringe when I see a press release that “regulators” have a solution! FHA has yet another new proposal that sounds great on the surface, but as typical misses some very important items that will cost taxpayers millions or considerably more as government...
Interesting times we are in. Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic. On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates. What is driving the continued...
Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than just before the pandemic. What categories are...
Although the spring real estate market has slowed drastically from the pandemic days, the bottom has not fallen out. Quite the opposite has occurred, in suburban markets and sunbelt cities, real estate keeps charging higher. A good example is Boulder, CO, a...
The share of Americans who say they live paycheck-to-paycheck climbed last year, and most of the new arrivals in that category were among the country’s higher earners (greater than 100k), a new study shows. Furthermore 24% had issues paying their bills in...
US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses. Why the sharp pullback in lending? What does this mean for commercial and residential...
As the banking crisis unfolds, the media continues to focus on depositors and shareholders. Although both are important, there is an even bigger issue that is not being discussed. According to the FDIC, community banks made 67% of all commercial real estate loans in...
Over 48 hours two banks failed for very different reasons. There is a saying in banking that when rates rise and easy money runs out, we will find the skeletons that have been lurking in plain sight. Are we in for a 2008 rerun? What caused the sudden...
Purchasing power from paychecks fell 2.9% for middle-income households in 2022 compared with 2021, while rising 1.5% for the bottom fifth of households and 1.1% for the top, according to the Congressional Budget Office study. Furthermore, nearly 40 percent of...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
Data from AirDNA, a short-term rental analytics firm, show as of October 2022, the number of future nights booked—a real-time indicator of the health of the short-term rental industry—was up 15.8% year-over-year. At the same time, anyone in the short-term rental...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1% in his recent 2023 market update. On the flip side the most recent federal reserve economic commentary classifies the current...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
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