One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

  It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric.  As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
Fed reverses course, interest rates fall, my servicing data tells a different story

Fed reverses course, interest rates fall, my servicing data tells a different story

  Although the graph above looks like an old Atari game, it is the Federal reserve dot plot which shows a profound shift.  Ironically, just a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve was touting higher rates for longer.  Now the federal reserve has done a 180 and has...
2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation?  The answer...
Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

US commercial real estate prices have fallen this year for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases.  This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices.  Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...
Banks tighten lending; 46% rejection rate on mortgage loans

Banks tighten lending; 46% rejection rate on mortgage loans

It was already difficult for businesses and households to borrow money earlier this year — but after the collapse of three US regional banks and a cascade of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, getting money has become considerably harder.   What does the decline in...