Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending

Home Depot slides, house prices stabilize, consumers will keep spending

  Interesting times we are in.  Consumers keep spending big on services like travel and eating out, but on the flip side Home Depot just reported its first drop since the pandemic.  On the other hand Target tops earnings estimates.  What is driving the continued...
Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

Commercial real estate falls first time since 2011; what is causing the decline?

US commercial real estate prices fell in the first quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to Moody’s Analytics, heightening the risk of more financial stress in the banking industry.  What property types are declining? (hint not just office...
Harder for Borrowers to Secure a Loan in February, Credit Availability Hits record low

Harder for Borrowers to Secure a Loan in February, Credit Availability Hits record low

As a private lender, my call volume and closings the first quarter have been off the charts as borrowers fall out of more conventional products.  This trend is now playing out with the Mortgage Credit Availability Index showing substantial tightening of credit for all...
Global Property Market Faces $175 Billion Debt Spiral: This cycle is different

Global Property Market Faces $175 Billion Debt Spiral: This cycle is different

I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend.  This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank.  In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
Commercial property prices slide 13% from peak, biggest since 08, where do prices go from here?

Commercial property prices slide 13% from peak, biggest since 08, where do prices go from here?

US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008.  What is causing the decline in commercial property prices.  Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
Inflation continues hot, 100% chance of recession in 12 months, what can past cycles tell us about real estate now and in the future?

Inflation continues hot, 100% chance of recession in 12 months, what can past cycles tell us about real estate now and in the future?

There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future.  It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month.  It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...