Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Clearest sign yet commercial real estate is in big trouble

Foreclosures are surging in a risky corner of commercial real-estate finance, offering one of the most profound signs yet that turmoil in the commercial property market is just beginning.  Lenders this year have issued a record number of foreclosure notices for...
Lock in effect thawing: more houses coming on the market

Lock in effect thawing: more houses coming on the market

There is a theory that locked in low mortgage rates will force owners to stay in their houses.  This has led to a huge shortage of inventory throughout the country.  Why is the “lock in effect” starting to wind down?  What does this mean for real estate prices over...
One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

One metric for risk is off the charts, impact on real estate

  It is interesting that the market continues to focus on interest rates and employment as the barometer for the economy while totally ignoring one metric.  As a lender I just did a year end analysis on our portfolio and one metric jumped off the page increasing...
2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

2024 National Real Estate predictions, will prices continue falling?

Before getting into my predictions, the chart above is indicative of the mixed signals in the economy. Prices are rising on cardboard due to increased consumer demand. How is demand for cardboard rising if consumer spending is slowing along with inflation?  The answer...
Fed has lost control of interest rates

Fed has lost control of interest rates

Housing industry urges Fed to stop raising rates, does it even matter? Top real estate and banking officials are calling on the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as the industry suffers through surging housing costs and a “historic shortage” of available...
16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

16 percent drop in Luxury spending, I created a model to predict when real estate prices will fall.

In the past recessions, especially in 2008, just prior to the crash we saw a big pull back in luxury purchases.  This was an early indicator of huge drops in real estate prices.  Currently we are seeing a resounding change in luxury spending, does this mean luxury...