There is a ton of negative news in real estate. Interest rates are remaining high, inventory is rising substantially, prices are coming off their peaks, commercial real estate is facing a reckoning, and the list goes on. Regardless of all the negative news, where...
Over the last several years, I’ve given various statistics from inventory, absorption rates, closings, consumer confidence, mortgage rates, etc… to provide guidance on where the real estate market is heading. Unfortunately there is one variable that I am now...
It seems nobody is talking about the property tax bomb coming to almost every major city. What is causing the huge decrease in property tax revenue even though your individual property taxes have skyrocketed? Why will your property taxes continue to skyrocket? I’m...
"The U.S. housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon," Bank of America economists Michael Gapen and Jeseo Park wrote in the Monday note. What is causing the real estate market to be stuck? Is being stuck actually the...
With the recent passage of president Trump's tax bill, what impact does this have on real estate and mortgage rates. Look at the chart above, why did interest rates rise when the tax bill was passed? Who are the winners and losers? What does this bill mean for the...
For the last 4 years, credit scores have been artificially inflated due to the omission of student loans (and lack of payments of student loans) leading to huge gains in credit scores. Unfortunately this trend is set to reverse this year. Look at this chart above...
Various trade publications continue to predict a decline in mortgage rates the second half of the year, yet at the same time Walmart, Ford, and others have announced big price hikes coming down the pipeline. What does this mean for the economy,...
In this past election, one state passed an updated law that disallows certain non residents from buying property. What was in the law? What state passed it? What was the huge change since 2023? What does this mean for buying real estate in certain states? Can a...
It is interesting that inventory is increasing, demand is declining, and yet home prices are staying relatively stable and or increasing based on the latest data from the National Association of Realtors. How accurate is this data? What alternative metric...
Rocket Mortgage announced the acquisition of Mr. Cooper mortgage, the largest loan servicer in the US, which will now service 2.1 trillion dollars in loans and the combined company will have access to over 10 million combined clients. Will this lead to a 2/3...
2025 was set to be the big recovery in real estate with rates lowering setting us up for a great year. Instead, rates are hovering around 7%, inventory is rising, and long term treasuries are pointing to higher rates for longer. There is also a trade...
In a surprise move, Rocket mortgage is acquiring the real estate brokerage company Redfin for 1.8 billion. Why is a mortgage company interested in a real estate broker? What does this mean for realtors, consumers, and competitors? Will this purchase...
Over the last 100 years or so counties have operated under the assumption that if property taxes (or in some cases water/sewer, etc…) are not paid then the county can “take” the property for the unpaid taxes. A recent supreme court ruling radically alters this...
Condominium owners across the country are facing a paralyzing problem: They can’t sell their properties because of a fast-growing and mostly secret mortgage blacklist. Don’t worry this is not some crazy conspiracy from the government. I’ve experienced this first...
This newest property tax measure that passed has been deemed the most controversial in the US. What was in the new measure? What state (hint it wasn't a far right or left state)passed a controversial law to protect private property rights by...
The chart above is very surprising. When the market is predicting a slowdown or a recession, gold typically rises and treasuries also rise, typically in tandem. The exact opposite is happening now as bond prices are falling and yields are rapidly increasing in the...
Are the bulls running or are the bears coming? Any business media you pick up is harping on the idea of a “recession watch” and the economy is basically coming to an end! On the flip side my proprietary lending data is giving me a radically different answer. What...
For years, myself, and many others have thought that interest rates were the predictor of housing prices. Fast forward to post COVID where interest rates have doubled and yet housing prices remain high and are still trending higher in many markets. What other...
70% of lumber and 30% of drywall comes from Canada which could be subject to tariffs, what does this mean for the average build cost of a house? What does the chart above have to do with Tariffs? Will tariffs meaningfully impact real estate build costs and...
In almost every real estate advertisement I receive, there is a common theme that prospective buyers should not focus on the rate as they will be able to refinance relatively soon at a much lower rate. How true is this theory? (hint anyone who bought into...
Look at the graph above, what has caused my closing to surge in 2025 while overall real estate closing volumes have plummeted? What does this mean for real estate? Don’t get me wrong, I like to think the surge in closings is because I’m an amazing lender and a great...
Wow, look at the huge increases in credit scores over the last 15 years. This has occurred even as student debt, auto debt, and credit card debt have all surged. Has the US all the sudden become much more credit worthy or has something else changed? What does this...
Higher income consumers are showing signs of stress. Look at the chart above, from the peak in 2022 higher end consumers intent to spend has dropped almost 25%. What does the chart mean for real estate and the general economy? Why focus on higher end consumers?...
The bank mantra over the last 3 years has been survive until 2025. 2025 is when bankers were predicting a sharp decline in rates that would ultimately bail out the beleaguered commercial property market. Here we are at the dawn of 2025 and 10 year treasuries and...
