The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Essentially whatever interest rates do the market reacts accordingly. For example if rates rise, sales fall and vice versa. Are rates really the driver of the slow down in real estate sales? If rates...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many large real estate brokerages could be a bombshell. The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday...
Data from AirDNA, a short-term rental analytics firm, show as of October 2022, the number of future nights booked—a real-time indicator of the health of the short-term rental industry—was up 15.8% year-over-year. At the same time, anyone in the short-term rental...
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estate sales? Will the lower rates be enough to turn around the slowing market? Will rates...
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property prices. Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
There is definitely allot of doom and gloom heading into 23 with interest rates double their lows, inventory increasing, and prices coming off their highs. In every cycle there will be winners and losers. Where will the real estate opportunities be? Are their certain...
In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1% in his recent 2023 market update. On the flip side the most recent federal reserve economic commentary classifies the current...
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
We are in a new paradigm for real estate. With talks of a recession getting louder, what does this mean for real estate. In 2008/9 real estate was radically different than today. Companies like VRBO and Airbnb were not even around. How will the next recession be...
The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards, lines of credit, etc… Is some consumer debt better/worse than others for the...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
The federal government is about to back mortgages over one million for the first time. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected to jump sharply in 2023, a reflection of the rapid appreciation in home prices...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
“Our model really works in upmarkets, it's going to work in flat markets, it's going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts just 6 short months ago. Unfortunately today this statement could not be further from the truth. ...
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months and Blackstone, one of the largest buyers of residential rental homes, is pausing...
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
The market currently has a fixation on interest rates. Essentially whatever interest rates do the market reacts accordingly. For example if rates rise, sales fall and vice versa. Are rates really the driver of the slow down in real estate sales? If rates...
I rarely say that Covid caused radical changes in behavior but the commercial property sector is bucking this trend. This is not because of return to office or lack thereof, but leverage and the central bank. In every cycle in recent memory as the economy started to...
It is no secret that rent has skyrocketed throughout the country. Nationally rental growth peaked at 17.45% year over year in March of 2022. Some markets like NY and FL have exceeded over 31% rent growth annually. What are the three causes of huge jumps in rents?...
I’m usually skeptical that lawsuits will totally alter an industry but the recent suit against the National Association of realtors, various multiple listing services, and many large real estate brokerages could be a bombshell. The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday...
Data from AirDNA, a short-term rental analytics firm, show as of October 2022, the number of future nights booked—a real-time indicator of the health of the short-term rental industry—was up 15.8% year-over-year. At the same time, anyone in the short-term rental...
It has been a wild ride in the treasury market. Rates spiked to 7.5%, but recently have plummeted back to below 6%? Now they are rising again. What does this mean for real estate sales? Will the lower rates be enough to turn around the slowing market? Will rates...
US commercial real estate prices have plunged 13% from a peak this year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008. What is causing the decline in commercial property prices. Is this a blip or will the slide in commercial property prices worsen in...
I hope everyone is having a happy holiday season. Before getting into my predictions for next year, there are three crucial factors to discuss that will shape the real estate market in 2023 and beyond: Interest rates, inflation, and consumer sentiment. All three are...
There is definitely allot of doom and gloom heading into 23 with interest rates double their lows, inventory increasing, and prices coming off their highs. In every cycle there will be winners and losers. Where will the real estate opportunities be? Are their certain...
In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1% in his recent 2023 market update. On the flip side the most recent federal reserve economic commentary classifies the current...
Since Covid it seems like traditional patterns have been broken. I hear time and time again that X or Y is different and there have been fundamental changes. Is this true, is everything “radically” different now? Is a bear walking around in the snow a sign (zoom in...
We are in a new paradigm for real estate. With talks of a recession getting louder, what does this mean for real estate. In 2008/9 real estate was radically different than today. Companies like VRBO and Airbnb were not even around. How will the next recession be...
The federal reserve bank of NY recently published a report showing consumer debt jumping to the highest levels ever recorded with every category growing from mortgages, autos, credit cards, lines of credit, etc… Is some consumer debt better/worse than others for the...
The prevailing theory is that this real estate cycle will be considerably better than others as so many people locked in rock bottom rates which will serve as “golden handcuffs” and prevent a meaningful increase in inventory. How accurate is this theory? What is the...
The federal government is about to back mortgages over one million for the first time. The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is expected to jump sharply in 2023, a reflection of the rapid appreciation in home prices...
There is pretty much a universal theme that there will be a recession in the future. It is like saying that it might rain sometime in the next month. It doesn’t help you much without knowing approximately when it will rain and if it will be a light sprinkle or turn...
“Our model really works in upmarkets, it's going to work in flat markets, it's going to work in downmarkets,” chief financial officer Carrie Wheeler told analysts just 6 short months ago. Unfortunately today this statement could not be further from the truth. ...
A few weeks ago, the big news was 6% rates and now everyone suddenly woke up with stocks crashing and yields soaring to new highs and rates jumping again. What does this mean in the short term for interest rates? Is focusing on the 30 year mortgage rate the correct...
It will get much worse for the housing market and the mortgage industry. That’s the takeaway from a group of economists at Fannie Mae who slashed their forecast for 2022 home sales this week. Federal Reserve chairman Powell recently threw even more cold water on their...
Home values slipped for the second consecutive month as mortgage costs continue to sideline buyers. From June through August, prices usually decline about 2%, but this year they have fallen about 6%. At the same time, mortgage rates hit highs of around 6.4%. ...
First, the pic above was the leading picture for a listing I looked at. I guess they were stressing the work from home conveniences in the office Unfortunately this could lead to some “interesting” conversations with coworkers. With the back to office trend in full...
Once again, the recent CPI report came in much higher than expected. Why did the market drastically miss this prediction? I’m not even an economist and figured out months ago inflation would be higher for longer as everything I buy from groceries, dining out,...
Wow, what a difference a few months makes. Earlier in the summer, basically any property with 4 walls had multiple offers and prices were on a tear. Fast Forward a few months and Blackstone, one of the largest buyers of residential rental homes, is pausing...
The National Association of Realtors predicts sales to rise again throughout 2023. At the same time, demand for mortgage refinances are down 83% from a year ago. Applications for a loan to purchase a home were 18% lower than the same week one year ago. Signed...
