I hope you and your family had a safe and relaxing Thanksgiving despite the ongoing uncertainty. Each year, I commemorate the holiday with a long trail run. But this year’s run offered more than reflection—it delivered a wake-up call.
As I looked back on the snowy trail, I noticed something strange. Tracks had appeared behind mine that hadn’t been there before. Something—or someone—was following me. It turns out 2021 might come with more surprises than expected. Let me explain.
A Thanksgiving Trail Run with a Warning
I live in the Colorado Rockies and spend much of my free time outdoors—running, hiking, fishing, and backpacking. Every holiday, my wife and I head out for a long trail run. This Thanksgiving, she stayed home with the kids for online school, so it was just me and Luna, our Siberian husky.
I hit the trail early, around 7:30 a.m., with fresh powder on the ground and temperatures near 8°F. The path was untouched since the last snowfall, and Luna and I had the place to ourselves. It was quiet, beautiful, and calm. Along the way, we passed meadows with moose and deer tracks. It was the perfect mountain morning.
As we crested the ridge, Luna stopped. She dropped her tail and stared behind us. I followed her gaze—and saw new tracks. Mountain lion tracks. Clear, fresh, and unmistakable. Unlike dogs, lions don’t leave claw marks. The cat had been following us. I never saw or heard it. But it had been there—quietly watching.
Luna likely saved me from a close call. Without her alertness, I might not have realized the danger until it was too late. It was a humbling reminder that in the wild, we’re not always at the top of the food chain.
2021: The Year of the Mountain Lion
Looking ahead to 2021, there’s a sense of hope. Vaccines are on the horizon, and markets are reacting with record highs. But like that silent mountain lion, risks may be lurking just out of sight. What seems like calm may quickly shift.
Consider this: Unemployment claims recently rose for two consecutive weeks for the first time since July. Personal income and savings dropped. Meanwhile, virus cases are surging again, lockdowns are returning, and Congress remains gridlocked over a new relief package.
The economic recovery is showing cracks. Structural job loss—from remote work shifts to hospitality disruptions—won’t disappear overnight, even with a vaccine. Restaurants, transit, office cleaning services, and many others may never fully recover to pre-pandemic norms.
The Lion in the Snow: A Cautionary Economic Tale
The lion that followed me that morning is a metaphor for what 2021 could hold. Will the economic “lion” simply remind us of our fragility, or will it pounce? No one knows for sure. But assuming we’re out of the woods may be premature.
The markets are optimistic, but that confidence may be misplaced. The fundamental shifts caused by the pandemic—consumer behavior, labor markets, business models—are still unfolding. We may not see or hear what’s coming until it’s too late to pivot.
So let’s approach 2021 with optimism—but also with caution. Just because we can’t see the lion doesn’t mean it’s not there.
